Aim  To test the prediction that environmental suitability derived from species distribution modelling (SDM) could be a surrogate for jaguar local population density estimates. Location  Americas. Methods  We used 1409 occurrence records of jaguars to model the distribution of the species using 11 SDM methods. We tested whether models’ suitability is linearly correlated with jaguar population densities estimated from 37 different locations. We evaluated whether the relationship between density and suitability forms a constraint envelope, in which higher densities are found mainly in regions with high suitability, whereas low densities can occur in regions with variable suitability. We tested this using heteroscedasticity test and quantile regressions. Results  A positive linear relationship between suitability and jaguar density was found only for four methods [bioclimatic envelope (BIOCLIM), genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), maximum entropy (Maxent) and generalized boosting models (GBM)], but with weak explanatory power. BIOCLIM showed the strongest relationship. Variance of suitability for lower densities values was larger than for higher values for many of the SDM models used, but the quantile regression was significantly positive only for BIOCLIM and random forests (RF). RF and GBM provided the most accurate models when measured with the standard SDM evaluation metrics, but possess poor relationship with local density estimates. Main conclusions  Results indicate that the relationship between density and suitability could be better described as a triangular constraint envelope than by a straight positive relationship, and some of the SDM methods tested here were able to discriminate regions with high or low local population densities. Low jaguar densities can occur in areas with low or high suitability, whereas high values are restricted to areas where the suitability is greater. In high suitability areas but with low jaguar density estimates, we discuss how extrinsic factors driving abundance could act at local scales and then prevent higher densities that would be expected by the favourable regional environmental conditions.

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Faeces provide relevant biological information which includes, with the application of genetic techniques, the sex and identity of individuals that defecated, thus providing potentially useful data on the behaviour and ecology of individuals, as well as the dynamics and structure of populations. This paper presents estimates of the sex ratio of different felid species (jaguar, Panthera onca; puma, Puma concolor; and ocelot/margay, Leopardus pardalis/Leopardus wiedi) as observed in field collected faeces, and proposes several hypotheses that could explain the strikingly high proportion of faeces from male jaguars. The proportion of male and female faeces was estimated using a non-invasive faecal sampling method in 14 study areas in Mexico and Brazil. Faecal samples were genetically analysed to identify the species, the sex and the individual (the latter only for samples identified as belonging to jaguars). Considering the three species, 72.6% of faeces (n = 493) were from males; however, there were significant differences among them, with the proportion from males being higher for jaguars than for pumas and ocelots/margays. A male-bias was consistently observed in all study areas for jaguar faeces, but not for the other species. For jaguars the trend was the same when considering the number of individuals identified (n = 68), with an average of 4.2±0.56 faeces per male and 2.0±0.36 per female. The observed faecal marking patterns might be related to the behaviour of female jaguars directed toward protecting litters from males, and in both male and female pumas, to prevent interspecific aggressions from male jaguars. The hypothesis that there are effectively more males than females in jaguar populations cannot be discarded, which could be due to the fact that females are territorial and males are not, or a tendency for males to disperse into suboptimal areas for the species.