ResumoO presente estudo objetiva determinar Regiões homogêneas do SPI-6 na Amazônia Oriental e analisar as principais características dos eventos secos e chuvosos em cada região. Para o cálculo do SPI, utilizou-se dados de precipitação de 72 postos pluviométricos distribuídos na Amazônia Oriental. Além disso, aplicou-se o Agrupamento Hierárquico de Ward para determinar as Regiões Homogêneas e a Análise Fatorial em Componentes Principais (ACP) para determinar os principais padrões de variabilidade climáticas associados aos eventos secos e chuvosos. Os resultados obtidos pela Análise de Agrupamento mostraram a existência de três Regiões Homogêneas em relação ao SPI-6: RH-1 (litoral), RH-2 (central) e RH-3 (sul). De modo geral a região do litoral apresentou mais eventos secos que chuvosos. Nas demais regiões (central e sul) a situação é inversa, isto é, existem mais eventos de chuva, porém com pouca duração. Por meio da ACP verificou-se que os eventos secos e chuvosos na Amazônia Oriental estavam associados, principalmente, a variabilidade climática dos oceanos Atlântico (Gradiente do Atlântico) e Pacífico (ENOS). Palavras-chave: Amazônia, precipitação, regiões homogêneas, SPI, ACP. Determination of Homogeneous Precipitation Regions of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Eastern Amazon AbstractThis paper aims to determine homogeneous regions of the SPI-6 in the Eastern Amazon and analyze the main characteristics of dry and rainy events in each region. For the calculation of the SPI, we used rainfall data of 72 rainfall stations distributed in the eastern Amazon. Furthermore, were used Ward hierarchical grouping to identify homogeneous regions and the Principal Components Factor Analysis (PCA) to determine the main climate variability patterns associated with dry and rainy events. The results showed three homogeneous regions (HR): HR-1 (coast), HR-2 (central region) and HR-3 (south). Generally, the coastal region showed more dry events than rain. In the other regions (central and south) the situation is reversed, i.e, there are more rain events, but with short duration. The results obtained by PCA showed that the dry and wet events in Eastern Amazonia were associated, mainly, to climate variability associated the Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic Dipole) and Pacific Ocean (ENSO).
Resumo Este trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir com o estudo da precipitação na cidade de Salvador–BA. Os totais mensais de precipitação obtidos pelo Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia no período de 51 anos (1961-2011) fundamentaram esta pesquisa. A variabilidade pluviométrica foi analisada com ênfase na determinação das classes da precipitação nas escalas anual, quadrimestral e mensal. Foram utilizados os testes de significância não paramétricos de Mann-Kendall e as estimativas de inclinação pelo método da Curvatura de Sen. Na classificação pluviométrica foi utilizado o Método dos Percentis (Quantis). Para a análise anual, os resultados mostraram que 1964 (1961) foi um ano classificado como “muito chuvoso” (“muito seco”). Na análise do quadrimestre mais chuvoso AMJJ (mais seco ASON), o ano de 1971 (1980) foi o mais extremo “muito chuvoso” (“muito seco”). Na análise mensal, o evento que obteve maior volume pluviométrico ocorreu em abril de 1984 com registros de 889,8 mm. A análise da tendência mostrou uma redução no volume de chuva na escala anual, entretanto, sem significância estatística. Grande parte dos eventos analisados ocorreram com condições oceânicas no Pacífico equatorial e/ou Atlântico Sul Tropical favoráveis (desfavoráveis) ao aumento (diminuição) do volume de chuva na área em estudo, tendo por base uma análise qualitativa.
In this study, we used the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify and to characterize the dry extreme events in the Amazon region. The results showed that the drought of 1998 was the most intense (SPI average equal to −1.69) in the period from 1979 to 2014. However, some papers have characterized the years 2005 and 2010 as the two largest droughts of the century. Thus, it was also carried out a comparative study of these droughts. The results showed that the drought 1998 was more intensive and extreme than the droughts of 2005 and 2010, although droughts of 2005 and 2010 lasted longer than 1998 due to oceanic and atmospheric conditions with influencing to cause greater social and economic impacts. Furthermore, it is suggested that the impact of the 2005 and 2010 droughts is a response from the dry occurred
BRCA1 (Breast Cancer 1, early onset) is linked to breast and ovarian cancer predisposition. Still, the risks conferred by a significant portion of BRCA1 variants identified in the population remains unknown. Most of these variants of uncertain significance are missense alterations. However, the functional implications of small in-frame deletions and/or insertions (indels) are also difficult to predict. Our group has previously evaluated the functional impact of 347 missense variants using an extensively validated transcriptional activity assay. Here we show a systematic assessment of 30 naturally occurring in-frame indels located at the C-terminal region of BRCA1. We identified positions sensitive and tolerant to alterations, expanding the knowledge of structural determinants of BRCA1 function. We further designed and assessed the impact of four single codon deletions in the tBRCT linker region and six nonsense variants at the C-terminus end of BRCA1. Amino acid substitutions, deletions or insertions in the disordered region do not significantly impact activity and are not likely to constitute pathogenic alleles. On the other hand, a sizeable fraction of in-frame indels at the BRCT domain significantly impact function. We then use a Bayesian integrative statistical model to derive the probability of pathogenicity for each variant. Our data highlights the importance of assessing the impact of small in-frame indels in BRCA1 to improve risk assessment and clinical decisions for carriers.
Operational records of power outages of the electric energy distribution systems in eastern Amazonia presented a large number of events attributed to lightning strikes, during the 2006 to 2009 period. The regional electricity concessionary data were compared to actual lightning observations made by SIPAM's LDN system, over two areas where operational sub systems of transmission lines are installed. Statistical relations were drawn between the monthly lightning occurrence density and the number of power outages of the electric systems for both areas studied. The results showed that, although with some delays between these variables peaks, the number of power disruptions has a tendency to follow the behavior of the lightning occurrence densities variations. The numerical correlations were positive and may be useful to the transmission lines maintenance crews at least for the Belém-Castanhal electricity distribution sub system. Evidence was found, that the SST's over certain areas of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, influence convection over the area of interest, and may help to prognosticate the periods of intense electric storms, requiring repair readiness for the regional electric systems.
Após análise de 51 anos de dados de precipitação (1961-2011) foi observado que em abril de 1984 houve um elevado volume pluviométrico, sobre uma área propícia à ocorrência de desastres naturais no Nordeste do Brasil, Salvador, capital do estado da Bahia. O acumulado de 889,8 mm caracterizou este evento climático como extremo e causou diversos impactos à cidade. Com o objetivo de estudar peculiaridades meteorológicas que caracterizaram este caso, o presente trabalho faz uma análise das condições atmosféricas associadas. Os resultados mostraram que nos três meses que antecederam abril de 1984, as anomalias de TSM foram superiores a 0,5°C na área tropical do oceano Atlântico Sul, uma condição que favorece à evaporação e, consequentemente, o aumento do teor de umidade da atmosfera. No mês de abril, a área de difluência na periferia leste da Alta da Bolívia, posicionada ao norte de 15°S, na área central da América do Sul, influenciou o Nordeste do Brasil. Paralelamente, ventos alísios de sudeste anomalamente fortes atuaram na Bahia e área oceânica próxima, uma condição que favorece o aumento do transporte de calor e umidade para o continente. Esse conjunto de fatores indica a presença de condições favoráveis ao levantamento na coluna de ar abaixo de 200 hPa e o desenvolvimento de convecção profunda na área de Salvador. Palavras-chave: eventos extremos de precipitação, área urbana, Nordeste do Brasil. Dynamical mechanisms associated to the occurrence of an extreme climatic event of precipitation in the city of Salvador-BA A B S T R A C T After the analysis 51 years of rainfall data (1961-2011) was noted that in April 1984 there was a high volume of rainfall, over an favorable area to occurrence of natural disasters in the Northeast, Salvador, capital city of Bahia State. The accumulated 889.8 mm, characterizing this climate event as extreme and causing many impacts to the city. Thus, this paper analyzes the atmospheric conditions associated with this case. The results showed that in the three months before April 1984, SST anomalies were greater than 0.5°C in the tropical area of the South Atlantic Ocean, a condition which favors the evaporation and the increase of atmospheric moisture content. In April, area of diffluence on the eastern periphery of the Bolivian high, located north of 15°S, in the central area of South America, influenced the Northeast of Brazil. In parallel, southeast winds anomalously strong influenced in Bahia and nearby ocean, a condition that favors the increase of heat and moisture transport to the continent. These factors indicate the presence of favorable conditions to uplift the air column below 200 hPa and development of deep convection in Salvador.
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