The main objective of this paper is to estimate the tourism demand for Mexico and Uruguay, two very different countries, but for both of which tourism is an important activity, and mainly originating from a large neighbor. We try to analyze whether the determinants of tourism demand differ depending on the size of the country, or if being a neighboring country is the main determinant. So, we analyze the relationship between the number of American tourists visiting Mexico and Argentinian tourists visiting Uruguay, and the inbound tourists’ income and the bilateral real exchange rate (RER) between the visiting country and the hosting country, following the Johansen’s methodology. We found one cointegration relationship for each country, where the income-elasticity was greater than 2 for American tourists visiting Mexico, and nearly 3 for Argentinian tourists visiting Uruguay. Bilateral RERs were also significant in both models. Moreover, forecasts show the impacts of institutional changes on the tourism sector. The impact of arrival of President Macri to power was positive for Argentinian tourists visiting Uruguay, but President Trump's arrival in the US was negative for American tourists visiting Mexico.
This paper combines electoral surveys to analyze the transformation of the structure of political cleavages in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico and Peru over the last decades. We document that Latin American countries are characterized by personalist leaderships (e.g., Fujimori in Peru, Uribe in Colombia) and important historical cleavages (e.g., anti vs. pro-PLN in Costa Rica) that blur class-based voting patterns and have led in some cases to the emergence of competing pro-poor and ethnic-based competing coalitions (e.g., PRN-PLN in Costa Rica, Fujimori-Humala in Peru) over the last decades. The party systems of Costa Rica, Colombia and Peru have thus generated volatile political socio-economic cleavages, while in the more institutionalized party systems of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico they have been less volatile.
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