Background Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is an autosomal dominant cancer predisposition syndrome characterized by very high lifetime cancer risk and early age at diagnosis of a wide cancer spectrum. Precise estimates for first and subsequent cancers risk are lacking. Methods The NCI’s LFS Study includes families meeting diagnostic criteria for LFS or Li-Fraumeni-like syndrome, and individuals with a germline TP53 mutation, choroid plexus carcinoma, adrenocortical carcinoma, or ≥3 cancers. We estimated cumulative risk and annual hazards for first and second cancer among TP53 mutation carriers (TP53+) using MATLAB. Results We evaluated 286 TP53+ individuals from 107 families. Cumulative cancer incidence was 50% by age 31 among TP53+ females and 46 among males, and nearly 100% by age 70 for both. Cancer risk was highest after age 20 for females, mostly due to breast cancer, while among males risk was higher in childhood and later adulthood. Among females, the cumulative incidence by age 70 for breast cancer, soft tissue sarcoma (STS), brain cancer, and osteosarcoma were 54%, 15%, 6%, and 5%, respectively. Among males, the incidence was 22%, 19%, and 11% for STS, brain cancer, and osteosarcoma. 49% of those with one cancer developed at least another cancer after a median of 10 years. Average age-specific risk of developing a second cancer was comparable to that of developing a first cancer. Conclusions Cumulative cancer risk in TP53+ individuals was high and varied by gender, age, and cancer type. Additional work, including prospective risk estimates, is needed to better inform personalized risk management.

Summary Background Reduction of premature mortality is a UN Sustainable Development Goal. Unlike other high-income countries, age-adjusted mortality in the USA plateaued in 2010 and increased slightly in 2015, possibly because of rising premature mortality. We aimed to analyse trends in mortality in the USA between 1999 and 2014 in people aged 25–64 years by age group, sex, and race and ethnicity, and to identify specific causes of death underlying the temporal trends. Methods For this analysis, we used cause-of-death and demographic data from death certificates from the US National Center for Health Statistics, and population estimates from the US Census Bureau. We estimated annual percentage changes in mortality using age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised excess deaths were estimated for 2000 to 2014 as observed deaths minus expected deaths (estimated from 1999 mortality rates). Findings Between 1999 and 2014, premature mortality increased in white individuals and in American Indians and Alaska Natives. Increases were highest in women and those aged 25–30 years. Among 30-year-olds, annual mortality increases were 2·3% (95% CI 2·1–2·4) for white women, 0·6% (0·5–0·7) for white men, and 4·3% (3·5–5·0) and 1·9% (1·3–2·5), respectively, for American Indian and Alaska Native women and men. These increases were mainly attributable to accidental deaths (primarily drug poisonings), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, and suicide. Among individuals aged 25–49 years, an estimated 111 000 excess premature deaths occurred in white individuals and 6600 in American Indians and Alaska Natives during 2000–14. By contrast, premature mortality decreased substantially across all age groups in Hispanic individuals (up to 3·2% per year), black individuals (up to 3·9% per year), and Asians and Pacific Islanders (up to 2·6% per year), mainly because of declines in HIV, cancer, and heart disease deaths, resulting in an estimated 112 000 fewer deaths in Hispanic individuals, 311 000 fewer deaths in black individuals, and 34 000 fewer deaths in Asians and Pacific Islanders aged 25–64 years. During 2011–14, American Indians and Alaska Natives had the highest premature mortality, followed by black individuals. Interpretation Important public health successes, including HIV treatment and smoking cessation, have contributed to declining premature mortality in Hispanic individuals, black individuals, and Asians and Pacific Islanders. However, this progress has largely been negated in young and middle-aged (25–49 years) white individuals, and American Indians and Alaska Natives, primarily because of potentially avoidable causes such as drug poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. The magnitude of annual mortality increases in the USA is extremely unusual in high-income countries, and a rapid public health response is needed to avert further premature deaths. Funding US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

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These data suggest clinical utility of baseline WBMRI in TP53 germline mutation carriers and may form an integral part of baseline clinical risk management in this high-risk population.

PURPOSE Human papillomavirus–positive oropharynx cancer incidence has increased rapidly in cohorts of US white men born during the 1930s to 1950s. It is unknown how the trajectory of the oropharynx cancer epidemic may be changing in the United States. METHODS Using US cancer registry information, we investigated whether increases in oropharynx cancer have continued into recent birth cohorts and forecasted the future burden across age, sex, and race/ethnicity subgroups. Log-linear Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate incidence trends during 1992 to 2015 and projections through 2029. RESULTS Among white men, oropharynx cancer incidence increased rapidly in individuals born during 1939 to 1955 (5.3% per 2-year birth cohort; 95% CI, 4.8% to 5.7%), but this rate of increase significantly moderated in individuals born during 1955 to 1969 (1.7% per 2-year birth cohort; 95% CI, 1.0% to 2.4%). Should these birth-cohort trends continue, from 2016 to 2029 we forecast that incidence will increase dramatically in older white men 65 to 74 years of age (from 40.7 to 71.2 per 100,000) and 75 to 84 years of age (from 25.7 to 50.1 per 100,000), moderately in white men 55 to 64 years of age (from 40.3 to 52.0 per 100,000), and remain stable in white men 45 to 54 years of age (approximately 18 per 100,000). Accounting for population growth, we project an increase in annual number of cases in the United States from 20,124 (95% CI, 19,779 to 20,469) in 2016 to 30,629 (95% CI, 29,413 to 31,845) in 2029, primarily driven by older individuals (age ≥ 65 years; from 7,976 [95% CI, 7,782 to 8,172] to 18,072 [95% CI, 17,271 to 18,895]) and white men (from 14,453 [95% CI, 14,142 to 14,764] to 22,241 [95% CI, 21,119 to 23,364]). CONCLUSION The exponential increase in oropharynx cancer incidence in young white US men has ebbed, and modest increases are occurring/anticipated in cohorts born after 1955. Continued strong increases in incidence in cohorts born before 1955, and an approximate 50% increase in size of the US population age 65 years or older through 2029, portend a substantial shift in burden to elderly white men.

Background: Increased consumption of folic acid is prevalent, leading to concerns about negative consequences. The effects of folic acid on the liver, the primary organ for folate metabolism, are largely unknown. Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) provides methyl donors for S-adenosylmethionine (SAM) synthesis and methylation reactions.Objective: Our goal was to investigate the impact of high folic acid intake on liver disease and methyl metabolism.Design: Folic acid–supplemented diet (FASD, 10-fold higher than recommended) and control diet were fed to male Mthfr+/+ and Mthfr+/− mice for 6 mo to assess gene-nutrient interactions. Liver pathology, folate and choline metabolites, and gene expression in folate and lipid pathways were examined.Results: Liver and spleen weights were higher and hematologic profiles were altered in FASD-fed mice. Liver histology revealed unusually large, degenerating cells in FASD Mthfr+/− mice, consistent with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. High folic acid inhibited MTHFR activity in vitro, and MTHFR protein was reduced in FASD-fed mice. 5-Methyltetrahydrofolate, SAM, and SAM/S-adenosylhomocysteine ratios were lower in FASD and Mthfr+/− livers. Choline metabolites, including phosphatidylcholine, were reduced due to genotype and/or diet in an attempt to restore methylation capacity through choline/betaine-dependent SAM synthesis. Expression changes in genes of one-carbon and lipid metabolism were particularly significant in FASD Mthfr+/− mice. The latter changes, which included higher nuclear sterol regulatory element-binding protein 1, higher Srepb2 messenger RNA (mRNA), lower farnesoid X receptor (Nr1h4) mRNA, and lower Cyp7a1 mRNA, would lead to greater lipogenesis and reduced cholesterol catabolism into bile.Conclusions: We suggest that high folic acid consumption reduces MTHFR protein and activity levels, creating a pseudo-MTHFR deficiency. This deficiency results in hepatocyte degeneration, suggesting a 2-hit mechanism whereby mutant hepatocytes cannot accommodate the lipid disturbances and altered membrane integrity arising from changes in phospholipid/lipid metabolism. These preliminary findings may have clinical implications for individuals consuming high-dose folic acid supplements, particularly those who are MTHFR deficient.

Purpose DICER1 syndrome is an autosomal-dominant, pleiotropic tumor-predisposition disorder caused by pathogenic germline variants in DICER1. We sought to quantify risk, hazard rates, and the probability of neoplasm incidence accounting for competing risks (“cumulative incidence”) of neoplasms (benign and malignant) and standardized incidence ratios for malignant tumors in individuals with DICER1 pathogenic variation. Patients and Methods We combined data from three large cohorts of patients who carry germline pathogenic variation in DICER1. To reduce ascertainment bias, we distinguished probands from nonprobands. Neoplasm diagnoses were confirmed by review of pathology reports and/or central review of surgical pathology materials. Standardized cancer incidence ratios were determined relative to the SEER program, which does not capture all DICER1-associated neoplasms. For all malignancies and benign tumors (“neoplasms,” excluding type Ir pleuropulmonary blastoma and thyroid nodules), we used the Kaplan-Meier method and nonparametric cumulative incidence curves to estimate neoplasm-free survival. Results We calculated the age at first neoplasm diagnosis (systematically ascertained cancers plus DICER1-associated neoplasms pleuropulmonary blastoma, cystic nephroma, and nasal chondromesenchymal hamartoma) in 102 female and male nonproband DICER1 carriers. By age 10 years, 5.3% (95% CI, 0.6% to 9.7%) of nonproband DICER1 carriers had developed a neoplasm (females, 4.0%; males, 6.6%). By age 50 years, 19.3% (95% CI, 8.4% to 29.0%) of nonprobands had developed a neoplasm (females, 26.5%; males, 10.2%). After age 10 years, female risk was elevated compared with male risk. Standardized cancer incidence ratio analysis of 102 nonproband DICER1 carriers, which represented 3,344 person-years of observation, showed significant cancer excesses overall, particularly of gynecologic and thyroid cancers. Conclusion This work provides the first quantitative analysis of site-specific neoplasm risk and excess malignancy risk in 102 systematically characterized nonproband DICER1 carriers. Our findings inform DICER1 syndrome phenotype, natural history, and genetic counseling.

IMPORTANCE Notable increases in mortality from alcohol-induced causes over the past 2 decades in the United States have been reported. However, comprehensive assessments of trends in alcoholinduced mortality by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and social and geographic factors are lacking. OBJECTIVE To examine trends in alcohol-induced mortality rates from 2000 to 2016, comparing results by demographic characteristics including sex, race/ethnicity, age, county-level socioeconomic status, and geographic location. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This serial cross-sectional study used US national vital statistics data for years 2000 to 2016 for all US residents older than 15 years. Data analysis was conducted from January to September 2019. EXPOSURES Trends in alcohol-induced mortality by sex, race/ethnicity, age, county-level socioeconomic status (ie, median income, percentage of unemployed residents, percentage of residents with a bachelor's degree), rurality level, and US state. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Alcohol-induced mortality, ie, deaths for which alcohol holds a population-attributable fraction of 1. Deaths were expressed per 100 000 residents as absolute and age-standardized rates. Mortality trends were measured as average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for the entire period (ie, 2000-2016) and annual percentage changes (APCs) for individual periods of change within the study period.