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Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

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A B S T R A C T Extending the meteorological record back in time can offer critical data for assessing tropical cyclone-climate links. While paleotempestology, the study of ancient storms, can provide a more realistic view of past 'worst case scenarios', future environmental conditions may have no analogues in the paleoclimate record. The primary value in paleotempestology proxy records arises from their ability to quantify climate-tropical cyclone interactions by sampling tropical cyclone activity during pre-historic periods with a wider range of different climates. New paleotempestology proxies are just beginning to be applied, encouraging new collaboration between the paleo and tropical cyclone dynamics communities. The aim of this paper is to point out some paths toward closer coordination by outlining target needs of the tropical cyclone theory and modelling community and potential contributions of the paleotempestology community. We review recent advances in paleotempestology, summarize the range of types and quality of paleodata generation, and identify future research opportunities for paleotempestology, tropical cyclone dynamics and climate change impacts and attribution communities.

An annually laminated stalagmite from the northern Yucatán Peninsula contains mud layers from 256 cave flooding events over 2240 years. This new conservative proxy for paleotempestology recorded cave flooding events with a recurrence interval of 8.3 years during the twentieth century, with the greatest frequency during the twentieth century and the least frequent during the seventeenth century. Tropical cyclone (TC) events are unlikely to flood the cave during drought when the water table is depressed. Applying TC masking to the Chaac paleorainfall reconstruction suggests that the severity of the Maya "megadroughts" was underestimated. Without a high-resolution radiometric geochronology of individual local TC events, speleothem isotope records cannot resolve whether the Terminal Classic Period in the northern Maya Lowlands was punctuated by several brief drought breaks with normal TCs, or whether the region was very dry and peppered by unusually severe and frequent hurricane seasons.