Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action. mercury | policy | impacts assessment | Minamata Convention | economic benefits

Abstract. Atmospheric mercury (Hg) measurements using the Tekran® analytical system from five high-elevation sites (1400–3200 m elevation), one in Asia and four in the western US, were compiled over multiple seasons and years, and these data were compared with the GEOS-Chem global model. Mercury data consisted of gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) and "reactive Hg" (RM), which is a combination of the gaseous oxidized (GOM) and particulate bound (< 2.5 μm) (PBM) fractions as measured by the Tekran® system. We used a subset of the observations by defining a "free tropospheric" (FT) data set by screening using measured water vapor mixing ratios. The oxidation scheme used by the GEOS-Chem model was varied between the standard run with Br oxidation and an alternative run with OH–O3 oxidation. We used this model–measurement comparison to help interpret the spatio-temporal trends in, and relationships among, the Hg species and ancillary parameters, to understand better the sources and fate of atmospheric RM. The most salient feature of the data across sites, seen more in summer relative to spring, was that RM was negatively correlated with GEM and water vapor mixing ratios (WV) and positively correlated with ozone (O3), both in the standard model and the observations, indicating that RM was formed in dry upper altitude air from the photo-oxidation of GEM. During a free tropospheric transport high RM event observed sequentially at three sites from Oregon to Nevada, the slope of the RM / GEM relationship at the westernmost site was −1020 ± 209 pg ng−1, indicating near-quantitative GEM-to-RM photochemical conversion. An improved correlation between the observations and the model was seen when the model was run with the OH–O3 oxidation scheme instead of the Br oxidation scheme. This simulation produced higher concentrations of RM and lower concentrations of GEM, especially at the desert sites in northwestern Nevada. This suggests that future work should investigate the effect of Br- and O3-initiated gas-phase oxidation occurring simultaneously in the atmosphere, as well as aqueous and heterogeneous reactions to understand whether there are multiple global oxidants for GEM and hence multiple forms of RM in the atmosphere. If the chemical forms of RM were known, then the collection efficiency of the analytical method could be evaluated better.

ABSTRACT:We explore implications of the United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from Asian coal-fired power generation, and resulting changes to deposition worldwide by 2050. We use engineering analysis, document analysis, and interviews to construct plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention. We translate these scenarios into emissions projections for 2050, and use the GEOS-Chem model to calculate global mercury deposition. Where technology requirements in the Convention are flexibly defined, under a global energy and development scenario that relies heavily on coal, we project ∼90 and 150 Mg·y −1 of avoided power sector emissions for China and India, respectively, in 2050, compared to a scenario in which only current technologies are used. Benefits of this avoided emissions growth are primarily captured regionally, with projected changes in annual average gross deposition over China and India ∼2 and 13 μg·m −2 lower, respectively, than the current technology case. Stricter, but technologically feasible, mercury control requirements in both countries could lead to a combined additional 170 Mg·y −1 avoided emissions. Assuming only current technologies but a global transition away from coal avoids 6% and 36% more emissions than this strict technology scenario under heavy coal use for China and India, respectively.

A spatially resolved, dynamic version of the Multimedia Urban Model (MUM) and the boundary layer forecast and air pollution transport model BLFMAPS were coupled to build Spatially Oriented MUM (SO-MUM), to estimate emissions and fate of POPs in an urban area on a 5 × 5 km(2) cell resolution. SO-MUM was used to back-calculate emissions from spatially resolved measured air concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs in Toronto, Canada. Estimated emissions of Σ(88)PCBs were 230 (40-480) kg y(-1), 280 (50-580) g y(-1) km(-2), or 90 (16-190) mg y(-1) capita(-1), and Σ(26)PBDEs were 28 (6-63) kg y(-1), 34 (7-77) g y(-1) km(-2), or 11 (2-25) mg y(-1) capita(-1). A mass inventory of penta- and octa-BDEs in Toronto was estimated to be 200 tonnes (90-1000 tonnes) or 80 (40-400) g capita(-1). Using this estimate and that of 440 (280-800) tonnes of PCBs, estimated emissions of Σ(88)PCBs and Σ(26)PBDEs per mass of chemical inventory in Toronto were 0.5 (0.05-1.6) and 0.1 (0.01-0.7) g y(-1) kg(-1), respectively. The results suggest annual emission rates of 0.04% and 0.01% from the mass inventories with downtown accounting for 30% and 16% of Toronto's chemical inventory and emissions of PCBs and PBDEs, respectively. Since total PBDE emissions are a function of mass inventory, which is proportional to building volume, we conclude that building volume can be used as a proxy to predict emissions. Per mass inventory emission rates were negatively related to vapor pressure within a compound class, but not consistently when considering all compound congeners.