Benefits of mercury controls for the United States

Abstract

Mercury pollution poses risks for both human and ecosystem health. As a consequence, controlling mercury pollution has become a policy goal on both global and national scales. We developed an assessment method linking global-scale atmospheric chemical transport modeling to regional-scale economic modeling to consistently evaluate the potential benefits to the United States of global (UN Minamata Convention on Mercury) and domestic [Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS)] policies, framed as economic gains from avoiding mercury-related adverse health endpoints. This method attempts to trace the policies-to-impacts path while taking into account uncertainties and knowledge gaps with policy-appropriate bounding assumptions. We project that cumulative lifetime benefits from the Minamata Convention for individuals affected by 2050 are $339 billion (2005 USD), with a range from $1.4 billion to $575 billion in our sensitivity scenarios. Cumulative economy-wide benefits to the United States, realized by 2050, are $104 billion, with a range from $6 million to $171 billion. Projected Minamata benefits are more than twice those projected from the domestic policy. This relative benefit is robust to several uncertainties and variabilities, with the ratio of benefits (Minamata/MATS) ranging from ≈1.4 to 3. However, we find that for those consuming locally caught freshwater fish from the United States, rather than marine and estuarine fish from the global market, benefits are larger from US than global action, suggesting domestic policies are important for protecting these populations. Per megagram of prevented emissions, our domestic policy scenario results in US benefits about an order of magnitude higher than from our global scenario, further highlighting the importance of domestic action. mercury | policy | impacts assessment | Minamata Convention | economic benefits

Uncertainties in Atmospheric Mercury Modeling for Policy Evaluation

“…1). Uncertainties and variability in ecosystem responses, Hg intake, and health impacts can contribute substantially to overall uncertainty in assessing the benefits of policy [43]. Advances in atmospheric Hg modeling will need to be coupled to best-available Hg science from aquatic and terrestrial systems as well as social science to inform effective impact and policy assessment tools.…”

“…In order to understand whether the Convention has succeeded in protecting human health and the environment from Hg, actions on production, use, trade, emissions, and releases must be linked with resulting changes in concentrations in biotic media and populations. Linking emissions to impacts for Hg requires tracing a complex pathway from policies, through emissions, to eventual impacts [43]. Atmospheric modeling provides a first step in making this linkage, by tracing the link from emissions to deposition.…”

Costs of IQ Loss from Leaded Aviation Gasoline Emissions

“…50–54 Within the model, household labor and leisure are treated as inputs to the good health of the US population. In the case of IQ loss, we consider only the effect of IQ on total lifetime earnings (labor).…”

Power and politics in research design and practice: Opening up space for social equity in interdisciplinary, multi-jurisdictional and community-based research

“…With that information, it would also be possible to make a general assessment of the effect that the Minamata Convention would have on a large population of fish consumers, such as those of the United States, and, ultimately, the US economy (Giang & Selin 2015). The aim is to determine a set of actions that could lead to an acceptable level of future global emissions (Perlinger et al 2016b).…”