Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer , Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20–30°C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32°C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1–2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1°C rise in thermal optimum (Topt.), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r max) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.

Abstract. An analysis of hydrologic variability in Colombia shows different seasonal effects associated with E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Spectral and cross-correlation analyses are developed between climatic indices of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the annual cycle of Colombia's hydrology: precipitation, river flows, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our findings indicate stronger anomalies during December-February and weaker during March-May. The effects of ENSO are stronger for streamflow than for precipitation, owing to concomitant effects on soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We studied time variability of 10-day average volumetric soil moisture, collected at the tropical Andes of central Colombia at depths of 20 and 40 cm, in coffee growing areas characterized by shading vegetation ("shaded coffee"), forest, and sunlit coffee. The annual and interannual variability of soil moisture are highly intertwined for the period 1997-1999, during strong E1 Nifio and La Nifia events. Soil moisture exhibited greater negative anomalies during 1997-1998 E1 Nifio, being strongest during the two dry seasons that normally occur in central Colombia. Soil moisture deficits were more drastic at zones covered by sunlit coffee than at those covered by forest and shaded coffee. Soil moisture responds to wetter than normal precipitation conditions during La Nifia 1998-1999, reaching maximum levels throughout that period. The probability density function of soil moisture records is highly skewed and exhibits different kinds of multimodality depending upon land cover type. NDVI exhibits strong negative anomalies throughout the year during E1 Nifios, in particular during September-November (year 0) and June-August (year 0). The strong negative relation between NDVI and E1 Nifio has enormous implications for carbon, water, and energy budgets over the region, including the tropical Andes and Amazon River basin.

Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929–2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.

No abstract

The demographic consequences of migration have important implications for both evolutionary ecology and conservation biology. We investigated local survival rates for six populations of sparrows at a wintering site. Recent developments in mark–recapture statistics were applied to a 13 year dataset with large numbers of marked individuals (n = 1,632 to 4,394). The study taxa were closely related, and included one resident species (Song Sparrow [Melospiza melodia gouldii]), one short-distance migrant (“Puget Sound” White-crowned Sparrow [Zonotrichia leucophrys pugetensis]), two moderate-distance migrants (Lincoln's [Melospiza lincolnii] and Fox [Passerella iliaca] sparrow), and two long-distance migrants (“Gambel's” White-crowned [Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii] and Golden-crowned [Zonotrichia atricapilla] sparrow). A literature review demonstrated a cline in fecundity among these sparrows: resident and short-distance migrants laid multiple clutches of few eggs, whereas long-distance migrants tended to produce one large clutch. Annual rates of local survival were low in the interval after first capture (<0.35), possibly because of variation in true survival, site-fidelity, presence of transients and heterogeneity of capture. Estimates of local survival among birds that returned at least once were more robust and were comparable among Song (0.558 ± 0.054 SE), Puget Sound White-crowned (0.461 ± 0.026), Lincoln's (0.456 ± 0.066), Fox (0.352 ± 0.0), Golden-crowned (0.422 ± 0.023) and Gambel's White-crowned (0.432 ± 0.0) sparrows. Estimates of survivorship for Lincoln's and Fox sparrows are among the first values available for those species. Local survival was not higher among resident than migratory taxa, nor did it covary with migration distance among migratory species. These results did not support the time-allocation hypothesis of Greenberg (1980), but are consistent with aspects of bet-hedging theory. While these analyses have potential implications for conservation of migratory birds, further work is required to establish whether these patterns are applicable to Neotropical migrants.