The opportunity to examine the structure and evolution of the various upper-tropospheric precursors to the formation of North Atlantic (NATL) subtropical cyclones (STCs) that undergo tropical transition (TT) motivates this study. Intraseasonal variability associated with the location and frequency of NATL STCs forming in the presence of similar upper-tropospheric features, as well as similarities and differences in the various upper-tropospheric precursors to the formation of NATL STCs that undergo TT, are examined. NATL STCs that undergo TT are categorized according to the upper-tropospheric features associated with their formation during 1979–2010 using the 0.5° NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset. This categorization allows for the documentation of the location and frequency of STCs forming in the presence of similar upper-tropospheric features and for the construction of cyclone-relative composites during the five days prior to STC formation. NATL STCs that undergo TT are separated into one of three categories based on the upper-tropospheric features associated with their formation: 1) cutoff lows, 2) meridional troughs, and 3) zonal troughs. STCs included in the cutoff low and meridional trough categories typically develop poleward of ~25°N over the western, central, and eastern NATL during September–November and August–November, respectively. In contrast, STCs included in the zonal trough category typically develop equatorward of ~30°N over the western NATL during June–September. Cyclone-relative composites reveal that ~61% of the categorized NATL STCs that undergo TT form in association with an upper-tropospheric feature whose structure and evolution are linked to anticyclonic wave breaking.
Subtropical cyclones (STCs) derive a considerable portion of their energy from baroclinic and diabatic processes. The opportunity to investigate the roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes during the evolution of STCs from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective motivates this study. The roles of baroclinic and diabatic processes during the evolution of STCs are determined by calculating three PV metrics from the 0.5° NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset. The three PV metrics quantify the relative contributions of lower-tropospheric baroclinic processes, midtropospheric latent heat release, and upper-tropospheric dynamical processes during the evolution of individual cyclones. An evaluation of the three PV metrics, as well as the sign of the upper-tropospheric thermal vorticity, during the evolution of individual cyclones is used to devise an objective STC identification technique and construct a 1979–2010 climatology of North Atlantic (NATL) STCs that undergo tropical transition. An investigation of the intraseasonal variability associated with the location and frequency of STCs identified in the 1979–2010 climatology shows that STCs typically form over the southern Gulf of Mexico and western NATL during April–June; over the northern Gulf of Mexico and western NATL during July–September; and over the western, central, and eastern NATL during October–December. STC formation occurs most frequently during September, when baroclinic and convectively driven forcings overlap across portions of the NATL. The frequency of STC formation is sensitive to the phase of ENSO and is maximized during periods of anomalously low SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
In early November 2006, an unnamed tropical cyclone (TC) formed via the tropical transition (TT) process at 42°N over the eastern North Pacific. An extratropical cyclone (EC), developing downstream of a thinning upper-tropospheric trough over the eastern North Pacific, served as the precursor disturbance that would ultimately undergo TT. The TT of the unnamed TC was extremely unusual—occurring over ~16°C sea surface temperatures in a portion of the eastern North Pacific basin historically devoid of TC activity. This paper 1) identifies the upper- and lower-tropospheric features linked to the formation of the EC that transitions into the unnamed TC, 2) provides a synoptic overview of the features and processes associated with the unnamed TC’s TT, and 3) discusses the landfall of the weakening cyclone along the west coast of North America. As observed in previous studies of TT, the precursor EC progresses through the life cycle of a marine extratropical frontal cyclone, developing a bent-back warm front on its northern and western sides and undergoing a warm seclusion process. Backward air parcel trajectories suggest that air parcels isolated in the center of the transitioning cyclone were warmed in the lower troposphere via sensible heating from the underlying sea surface. Vertical cross sections taken through the center of the cyclone during its life cycle reveal its transformation from an asymmetric, cold-core, EC into an axisymmetric, warm-core, TC during TT. Ensemble reforecasts initialized after TT highlight the relatively low forecast skill associated with the landfall of the weakening cyclone.
Cool-season extreme weather events (EWEs) (i.e., high-impact weather events that are societally disruptive, geographically widespread, exceptionally prolonged, and climatologically infrequent) are typically associated with strong extratropical cyclones (ECs). The opportunity to investigate the genesis locations, tracks, and frequencies of ECs leading to EWEs over central and eastern North America and compare them to those of ordinary ECs forming over and traversing the same region motivates this study. ECs leading to EWEs are separated from ordinary ECs according to the magnitude, areal extent, and duration of their 925-hPa standardized wind speed anomalies in the 0.5° NCEP CFSR dataset. This separation allows for the construction of an October–March 1979–2016 climatology of ECs leading to EWEs over central and eastern North America. The climatology of ECs leading to EWEs over central and eastern North America reveals that these ECs typically form in the lee of the Rocky Mountains, over the south-central United States, and along the east coast of North America at latitudes equatorward of the typical genesis locations of ordinary ECs. ECs leading to EWEs exhibit equatorward-shifted tracks relative to ordinary ECs, likely associated with an equatorward shift in the position of the subtropical or polar-front jet. ECs leading to EWEs form most frequently in November and March, when the seasonal alignment of baroclinic and diabatic forcings is maximized. Similar to ordinary ECs, the genesis locations, tracks, and frequencies of ECs leading to EWEs are partially determined by the states of the Pacific–North American pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation.
The frequency, timing, and environmental conditions of lake-effect (LE) precipitation over Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake in northern California and western Nevada were examined for the 14 winters (September–March) from 1996/97 through 2009/10. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from Reno, Nevada (KRGX), were used to identify 62 LE events. LE precipitation occurred as single bands extending downwind from overlake areas, and as isolated regions of overlake precipitation with little or no extension over land. Mesoscale vortices were also identified during both Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake LE events. An average of 4.4 LE events occurred each winter in the Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake region, with events occurring most frequently in October. LE events had an average duration of 6.3 h, approximately half the duration of LE events observed over Lake Champlain, the New York State Finger Lakes, or the Great Salt Lake. The observed conditions during LE events in the Lake Tahoe and Pyramid Lake region typically had 1) mean surface air temperatures below freezing, 2) mean surface wind speeds of <2.0 m s−1 (notably weaker than during lake effect in other areas), 3) a mean lake–air temperature difference of 11.5°C, and 4) a mean lake–700-hPa temperature difference of 20.9°C.
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