In this paper the results from a workshop of the OSPAR Intersessional Correspondence Group on Eutrophication Modelling (ICG-EMO) held in Lowestoft in 2007 are presented. The aim of the workshop was to compare the results of a number of North Sea ecosystem models under different reduction scenarios. In order to achieve comparability of model results the participants were requested to use a minimum spin-up time, common boundary conditions which were derived from a widerdomain model, and a set of common forcing data, with special emphasis on a complete coverage of river nutrient loads. Based on the OSPAR requirements river loads were derived, taking into account the reductions already achieved between 1985 and 2002 for each country. First, for the year 2002, for which the Comprehensive Procedure was applied, the different horizontal distributions of net primary production are compared. Furthermore, the differences in the net primary production between the hindcast run and the 50% nutrient reduction runs are displayed. In order to compare local results, the hindcast and reduction runs are presented for selected target areas and scored against the Comprehensive Procedure assessment levels for the parameters DIN, DIP and chlorophyll. Finally, the temporal development of the assessment parameter bottom oxygen concentration from several models is compared with data from the Dutch monitoring station Terschelling 135. The conclusion from the workshop was that models are useful to support the application of the OSPAR Comprehensive Procedure. The comparative exercise formulated specifically for the

Observations from space and in situ from the R.V. Corystes 8/03 Cruise show that a massive Karenia mikimotoi bloom occured during summer 2003 in the western English Channel. Due to exceptional climatoligical conditions that occured in June 2003, the installation of a very strong thermocline enhanced the development of a massive bloom over 1 million cells l−1 in the Central English Channel. This paper presents the application of a mathematical model of this species, previously developed in for the Bay of Biscay, into a general 3D model of the primary production of the English Channel and southern Bight of the North Sea. Allelopathic interactions exerted by K. mikimotoi on other phytoplankton species and the role of agitation in the mortality of this species are taken into account. The model includes the dynamics of the bloom and consequently reproduces with good agreement the geographical distribution of the K. mikimotoi bloom both surface and subsurface. The model suggests that the apparent transport of the bloom towards the French coasts as inferred from the satellite observation was not due to advection but was only caused by the establishment of suitable conditions. The sensivity of the K. mikimotoi distribution to boundary conditions, initialization and the role of turbulence is discussed.

a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f oThe freshwater (RIVE) and the marine (MIRO) biogeochemical models were coupled to a 1D hydrosedimentary model to describe contemporary phytoplankton succession and nutrient transfers in the macrotidal Scheldt estuary (BE/NL) affected by anthropogenic nutrient loads. The 1D-RIVE-MIRO model simulations are performed between Ghent and Vlissingen and the longitudinal estuarine profiles are validated by visual and statistical comparison with physico-chemical and phytoplankton observations available for the year 2006. Results show the occurrence of two distinct spatial phytoplankton blooms in the upper and lower estuary, suggesting that neither the freshwater nor the marine phytoplankton gets over the maximum turbidity zone (MTZ) at the saline transition. Sensitivity tests performed to understand how changing conditions (salinity, turbidity and nutrients) along the estuary are controlling this bimodal spatial phytoplankton distribution identify salinity and light availability as the key drivers while the grazing pressure and nutrient limitation play a negligible role. Additional tests with varying salinity-resistant (euryhaline) species in the freshwater assemblage conclude that the presence (or absence) of euryhalines determines the magnitude and the spreading of freshwater and marine phytoplankton blooms in the estuary. Annual nutrient budgets estimated from 1D-RIVE-MIRO simulations show that biological activities have a negligible impact on nutrient export but modify the speciation of nutrients exported to the coastal zone towards inorganic forms, thus directly available to phytoplankton. The implementation of nutrient reduction options (upgrading of waste water treatment plants, conversion to organic farming) on the Scheldt watershed influences the whole estuary and affects both the magnitude and the speciation of nutrients exported to the coastal zone with expected impact on coastal phytoplankton dynamic.

This paper describes the building of an integrated simulation tool based on a systems approach, and its contribution to local political discussion of the mitigation of microbiological contamination of the water in a coastal area. Local management schemes view water quality as a high-priority environmental objective. In practice, how far this objective is achieved depends on trade-offs between the costs of improved water treatment facilities and the acceptable impacts of water contamination. An in-the-field experiment in collaboration with local managers was carried out in the Thau lagoon on the French Mediterranean coast during the SPICOSA (Science and Policy Integration for Coastal System Assessment) project, from 2007 through 2011. It consisted of building a modeling platform and an integrated assessment framework for simulating exploratory scenarios. The modeling platform combines a dynamic contamination model, which represents the sources of microbiological contamination, wastewater treatment facilities, and physical mechanisms of lagoon contamination, with a prospective economic model, which estimates the patterns of development of economic activities in the area through a holistic approach. Exploratory scenarios are used to assess the risk of water contamination and the efficiency of management measures, under various assumptions about the evolution of the system. The contamination simulations suggest that the work currently planned by local authorities will be inadequate for preventing increased water pollution, and that additional but fairly inexpensive management measures for maintaining the current level of water quality should be considered. The integrated assessment framework estimates the ecological and socio-economic impacts of the various pollution mitigation policies in the broader context of possible local development patterns. The results illustrate how the systems approach may aid in the design of an applicable water policy based on operational objectives and feasible technical options.

The general trend in ecosystem modelling is to improve the spatial resolution by shifting from rough box-models to fine 3D models. Despite the continuous speeding-up of computing, 3D models involving numerous state variables may remain intractable, especially for parameter calibration, when processes with long half-life periods (i.e, from years to decades) are introduced, such as the behaviour of organic matter in sediment and population dynamics of benthic species. In these cases, a first approach can be provided by fast-running box-models, if they take into account the most crucial hydrodynamic properties of the system. In a macrotidal shelf sea such as the English Channel, the long-term horizontal transport can be summarized by the tidal residual circulation, and the vertical stratification can be sketched by a two-or three-layered integral model. This paper compares the results obtained in the English Channel area by the same biogeochemical equations of pelagic primary production, coupled to 1) a two-layered box-model 2) a three-layered box-model (i.e., with an intermediate cline layer between surface and bottom ones) and 3) a finegridded 3D model. Comparison is focused firstly on thermal stratification and summer dinoflagellate blooms in the northwestern Channel and secondly on the haline stratification and the sequence of blooms obtained in the eutrophicated Seine river plume. Comparison shows that box-models act as low-pass filters which reproduce correctly the weekly mean time-course, but greatly reduce the variance locally observed in a tide-oscillating plume region. As far as global characteristics are concerned, such as the annual primary production, or the percentage of variation in annual production after reducing the nutrient loadings, the box and 3D models gave very similar results. This conclusion reinforces the usefulness of using box-models as a first approach in long-term processes, for which a long transient phase is expected before reaching the annual periodic solution.

ABSTRACT. The contribution of soft institutional change to improve freshwater governance in the coastal zone will be examined.Freshwater management seeks to reduce losses due to overexploitation of the common-pool resources provided by river catchments and their associated ecosystems. Due to the complexity of the governance system, improving the performance of one coastal social-ecological system means searching for the appropriate "soft" institutional change. In the Pertuis Charentais region, increasing scarcity of freshwater in summer threatens the health of the coastal ecosystem and the sustainability of human activities, which depend on the use of natural resources. The allocation of freshwater among competing uses or concerns is a core issue for integrated coastal zone management. To address this issue, we have constructed an analytical framework that combines the ecosystem services approach with the institutional analysis of common-pool resources, and have developed an integrated simulation tool based on the system dynamic modeling approach. Freshwater scarcity generates three kinds of user conflict: (1) conflict between two extractive uses of freshwater (irrigation and drinking water), (2) conflicts between extractive uses (provisioning services) and other services (support, regulatory, and cultural) provided by freshwater, and (3) competition within a given activity sector (agriculture or shellfish farming). Participation by local managers led to the identification of realistic soft institutional changes that might mitigate conflicts and improve the governance system. These possible institutional changes were then integrated as fixed exogenous parameters in the simulation model. The simulated scenarios suggest that innovative collective arrangements involving farmers could be an alternative to other more restrictive top-down measures. This participatory experiment also illustrates the potential of social-ecological modeling for exploring acceptable new institutional arrangements.

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