The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).
Even though winter land-sea thermal contrast (LSC) is expected to undergo a strong weakening in the future warmer climate, its effects have been poorly investigated. Here we run a set of idealised winter simulations featuring reduced LSC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, or in individual extratropical sectors of the NH (Atlantic and Pacific), using an intermediate-complexity atmospheric general circulation model. Reduced LSC is obtained by imposing a warming of surface land temperatures in East Asia and North America. For similar warming intensities over the two regions, the response of the model to East Asia forcing is significantly stronger and dominates the response to the sum of the two forcing patterns. We find that the LSC reduction causes a weakening and poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet streams, and a strong interference with zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. In particular, East-Asia warming reduces the amplitude of wave 1 and 2 producing a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex, while a weaker vortex due to a moderate amplification of wave 1 is detected when warming North America. Eventually, stratospheric signals propagate downward in the troposphere affecting the midlatitude winter NH even remotely from the forcing. In this work we pinpoint some mechanisms by which weakened winter LSC influences the NH extratropical circulation: the results may become useful to interpret the response to long-term projections displaying reduced LSC along with other climate-change forcing patterns.
<p>Advances in the development of seasonal forecast systems allow skillful predictions of the atmospheric flow in the extratropics. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of stratospheric processes in climate variability at seasonal time scales, while their representation and impact in seasonal prediction is yet to be understood. Here stratospheric variability and predictability in boreal winter are evaluated on the seasonal range, using multi-model retrospective forecasts initialised in November. A novel focus is adopted to assess troposphere-stratosphere coupling (i.e., the interaction between upper-tropospheric eddy heat flux and the stratospheric polar vortex) on the basis of the empirical relation derived by Hinssen and Ambaum (2010)<sup>[1]</sup>. Results indicate that dynamical predictions perform better than persistence forecasts and show significant skill up to lead season one (December to February). We find that seasonal anomalies of stratospheric zonal-mean zonal wind in the extratropics are mostly explained by anomalous tropospheric eddy heat flux; the response to tropospheric wave forcing is weaker in models than in reanalysis. Furthermore, we demonstrate that skillful seasonal stratospheric forecasts benefit from residual predictability of the heat flux over the Pacific sector, while further improvements are limited by current unpredictability of the Eurasian heat flux on the seasonal time scale. Sources of long-term predictability are examined and reveal a potential influence of the QBO, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover and ENSO. This work is realised using data from the seasonal Copernicus Climate Change Service multi-model (November initialisations from 1993 to 2016) and from ERA-Interim reanalysis.</p><p>[1] Hinssen, &#160;Y. B. L. and Ambaum, &#160;M. H. P.: &#160;Relation between the 100-hPa heat flux and stratospheric potential vorticity, J. Atmos.Sci., 67, 4017&#8211;4027, 2010.</p>
Abstract. Central Asia orography sets important features of the winter climate over East Asia and the Pacific. By deflecting the mid-latitude jet polewards it contributes to the formation of the Siberian High and, on the lee side, to the advection of dry cold continental air over the East Asian coast and the Pacific Ocean, where atmospheric instability and cyclogenesis thrive. While the mechanical forcing by the orography is assessed by a number of modelling studies, it is still not clear how near-surface temperature over the two most prominent orographic barriers of the Central Asian continent, namely the Tibetan and Mongolian plateaux, influences the winter climate downstream. Moreover, a well known issue of state-of-the art climate models is a cold land temperature bias over the Tibetan Plateau related with the difficulty in modelling land processes and land–atmosphere interaction over complex orography. Here we take advantage of the large spread in representing near surface temperature over the Central Asia plateaux among climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) to study how temperatures over these regions impact the atmospheric circulation. Based on composites of the CMIP6 models' climatologies showing a cold bias over the Tibetan Plateau, we find that negative temperature anomalies over Asian orography intensify the East Asia winter monsoon and, by enhancing the low-level baroclinicity in the region of the East China Sea, reinforce the southern flank of the Pacific jet. The results of the CMIP6 composite analysis are supported by the response of an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model to a similar pattern of cold surface temperatures over the Central Asia plateaux; we also distinguish the relative influence of the Tibetan and the Mongolian Plateau surface conditions. Thereby, based on the intensification of the East Asia winter monsoon in models characterised by a cold land temperature (bias) over Central Asia plateaux, we prospect that advances in the modelling of the land energy budget over this region may improve the simulation of the mean climate over the Asia/Pacific sector, together with the reliability of climate projections and the performance of shorter term forecasts.
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<p>Long-term projections of the future climate display a robust reduction of winter land-sea thermal contrast in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), caused by a faster warming of the cold continents compared to the warm oceans. The reduction is expected to be strong in the extratropics, a region where the thermal contrast is relevant for maintaining the strong baroclinicity near the western coasts of the continents and for shaping the NH jets and large-scale stationary waves.</p><p>In this work idealised perpetual-winter experiments characterised by a reduced land-sea thermal contrast are compared to control simulations featuring a thermal contrast similar to that observed in present-day climate. We use an intermediate-complexity AGCM with prescribed sea-surface and land temperatures. Warm temperature anomalies in East Asia and/or North America set a reduced thermal contrast in the whole NH or in individual NH sectors. We find that the Pacific-sector land-sea thermal contrast is by far more important than the Atlantic one for the large-scale mid-latitude circulation, as it impacts strongly the jet streams and the stationary planetary waves. While the local effects are coherent with the changes in baroclinicity brought by the surface forcing, the remote effects seem to be mediated by the response of the thermal and orographic components of the stationary waves. Based on the idealised-modelling results it is possible to hypothesise how the projected change in winter land-sea thermal contrast influences climate scenarios for the end of the XXI century. This factor has been rarely considered as a possible source of dynamical changes for the mid-latitude winter season.</p>
<p>In the Northern-Hemisphere mid latitudes the winter land-sea thermal contrast is expected to decrease with increasing CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere, due to a faster warming of the continents with respect to the oceans. Moreover, the reduction of the winter thermal contrast is basin dependent, as it is influenced by regional warming patterns specific of the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, e.g. by the North-Atlantic Warming Hole.<br>In this work we run a set of idealised perpetual-winter numerical experiments made with the simplified atmospheric circulation model SPEEDY where the extratropical land-sea thermal contrast is reduced by means of warm temperature anomalies over the continents. The reduction of the thermal contrast is performed first over the whole Northern Hemisphere, then over individual basins - Atlantic and Pacific - by warming, in turn, the land temperature of East Asia and North America. The impact of the reduced winter contrast on the mid-latitude tropospheric circulation is analysed with a focus on stationary planetary waves, the jet streams and the associated storm tracks. From the individual-basin approach we find that the Pacific land-sea thermal contrast is particularly important for the shape and amplitude of the stationary planetary waves and that it affects the whole Northern-Hemisphere circulation, reaching the North Atlantic storm track and jet. The role of the stratospheric pathway in the tropospheric response to reduced thermal contrast is also investigated, and shows nearly opposite features with respect to reduced Atlantic or reduced Pacific thermal contrast.</p>
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