For developing countries, scarcity of climatic data is the biggest challenge, and model development with limited meteorological input is of critical importance. In this study, five data intelligent and hybrid metaheuristic machine learning algorithms, namely additive regression (AR), AR-bagging, AR-random subspace (AR-RSS), AR-M5P, and AR-REPTree, were applied to predict monthly mean daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0). For this purpose, climatic data of two meteorological stations located in the semi-arid region of Pakistan were used from the period 1987 to 2016. The climatic dataset includes maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax, Tmin), average relative humidity (RHavg), average wind speed (Ux), and sunshine hours (n). Sensitivity analysis through regression methods was applied to determine effective input climatic parameters for ET0 modeling. The results of performed regression analysis on all input parameters proved that Tmin, RHAvg, Ux, and n were identified as the most influential input parameters at the studied station. From the results, it was revealed that all the selected models predicted ET0 at both stations with greater precision. The AR-REPTree model was located furthest and the AR-M5P model was located nearest to the observed point based on the performing indices at both the selected meteorological stations. The study concluded that under the aforementioned methodological framework, the AR-M5P model can yield higher accuracy in predicting ET0 values, as compared to other selected algorithms.
Anthropogenic activities and natural climate changes are the central driving forces of global ecosystems and agriculture changes. Climate changes, such as rainfall and temperature changes, have had the greatest impact on different types of plant production around the world. In the present study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of major crops (cotton, rice, wheat, and sugarcane) in the District Vehari, Pakistan, from 1984 to 2020 using remote sensing (RS) technology. The crop identification was pre-processed in ArcGIS software based on Landsat images. After pre-processing, supervised classification was used, which explains the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) to identify the vegetation changes. Our results showed that in the study area cultivated areas under wheat and cotton decreased by almost 5.4% and 9.1% from 1984 to 2020, respectively. Vegetated areas have maximum values of NDVI (> 0.4), and built-up areas showed fewer NDVI values (0 to 0.2) in the District Vehari. During the Rabi season, the temperature was increased from 19.93 °C to 21.17 °C. The average temperature was calculated at 34.28 °C to 35.54 °C during the Kharif season in the District Vehari. Our results showed that temperature negatively affects sugarcane, rice, and cotton crops during the Rabi season, and precipitation positively affects sugarcane, rice, and cotton crops during the Kharif season in the study area. Accurate and timely assessment of crop estimation and relation to climate change can give very useful information for decision-makers, governments, and planners in formulating policies regarding crop management and improving agriculture yields.
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