Abstract:The spatio-temporal analysis of land use changes could provide basic information for managing the protection, conservation and production of forestlands, which promotes a sustainable resource use of temperate ecosystems. In this study we modeled and analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use of a temperate forests in the region of Pueblo Nuevo, Durango, Mexico. Data from the Landsat images Multispectral Scanner (MSS) 1973, Thematic Mapper (TM) 1990, and Operational Land Imager (OLI) 2014 were used. Supervised classification methods were then applied to generate the land use for these years. To validate the land use classifications on the images, the Kappa coefficient was used. The resulting Kappa coefficients were 91%, 92% and 90% for 1973, 1990 and 2014, respectively. The analysis of the change dynamics was assessed with Markov Chains and Cellular Automata (CA), which are based on probabilistic modeling techniques. The Markov Chains and CA show constant changes in land use. The class most affected by these changes is the pine forest. Changes in the extent of temperate forest of the study area were further projected until 2028, indicating that the area of pine forest could be continuously reduced. The results of this study could provide quantitative information, which represents a base for assessing the sustainability in the management of these temperate forest ecosystems and for taking actions to mitigate their degradation.

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A key step in the processing of satellite imagery is the radiometric correction of images to account for reflectance that water vapor, atmospheric dust, and other atmospheric elements add to the images, causing imprecisions in variables of interest estimated at the earth's surface level. That issue is important when performing spatiotemporal analyses to determine ecosystems' productivity. In this study, three correction methods were applied to satellite images for the period 2010-2014. These methods were Atmospheric Correction for Flat Terrain 2 (ATCOR2), Fast Line-of-Sight Atmospheric Analysis of Spectral Hypercubes (FLAASH), and Dark Object Substract 1 (DOS1). The images included 12 sub-scenes from the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensors. The images corresponded to three Permanent Monitoring Sites (PMS) of grasslands, 'Teseachi', 'Eden', and 'El Sitio', located in the state of Chihuahua, Mexico. After the corrections were applied to the images, they were evaluated in terms of their precision for biomass estimation. For that, biomass production was measured during the study period at the three PMS to calibrate production models developed with simple and multiple linear regression (SLR and MLR) techniques. When the estimations were made with MLR, DOS1 obtained an R 2 of 0.97 (p < 0.05) for 2012 and values greater than 0.70 (p < 0.05) during 2013-2014. The rest of the algorithms did not show significant results and DOS1, which is the simplest algorithm, resulted in the best biomass estimator. Thus, in the multitemporal analysis of grassland based on spectral information, it is not necessary to apply complex correction procedures. The maps of biomass production, elaborated from images corrected with DOS1, can be used as a reference point for the assessment of the grassland condition, as well as to determine the grazing capacity and thus the potential animal production in such ecosystems.

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The temperate forests of northern Mexico possess a great diversity of unique and endemic species, with the greatest associations of pine-oak in the planet occurring within them. However, the ecosystems in this region had experienced an accelerated fragmentation process in the past decades. This study described and quantified the landscape fragmentation level of a degraded watershed located in this region. For that, data from the Landsat series from 1990, 2005 and 2017, classified with the Support Vector Machine method, were used. The landscape structure was analyzed based on six metrics applied at both, the landscape and class levels. Results show considerable gains in surface area for the land use land cover change (LULC) of secondary forest while the Primary Forest (PF) lost 18.1% of its area during 1990–2017. The PF increased its number of patches from 7075 to 12,318, increased its patch density (PD) from 53.51 to 58.46 # of patches/100 ha, and reduced its average patch size from 39.21 to 15.05 ha. This made the PF the most fragmented LULC from the 5 LULCs evaluated. In this study, strong fluctuations in edge density and PD were registered, which indicates the forests of northern Mexico have experienced a reduction in their productivity and have been subjected to a continuous degradation process due to disturbances such as fires, clandestine and non-properly controlled logging, among others.

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The loss of temperate forests of Mexico has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. This study analyzes land use/land cover change scenarios, using satellite images from the Landsat sensor. Images corresponded to the years 1990, 2005 and 2017. The scenarios were applied for the temperate forests with the aim of getting a better understanding of the patterns in land use/land cover changes. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) multispectral classification technique served to determine the land use/land cover types, which were validated through the Kappa Index. For the simulation of land use/land cover dynamics, a model developed in Dinamica-EGO was used, which uses stochastic models of Markov Chains, Cellular Automata and Weight of Evidences. For the study, a stationary, an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario were proposed. The projections based on the three scenarios were simulated for the year 2050. Five types of land use/land cover were identified and evaluated. They were primary forest, secondary forest, human settlements, areas without vegetation and water bodies. Results from the land use/land cover change analysis show a substantial gain for the secondary forest. The surface area of the primary forest was reduced from 55.8% in 1990 to 37.7% in 2017. Moreover, the three projected scenarios estimate further losses of the surface are for the primary forest, especially under the stationary and pessimistic scenarios. This highlights the importance and probably urgent implementation of conservation and protection measures to preserve these ecosystems and their services. Based on the accuracy obtained and on the models generated, results from these methodologies can serve as a decision tool to contribute to the sustainable management of the natural resources of a region.