Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in the eastern Africa region dating to 1836. Cholera is now endemic in the Lake Victoria basin, a region with one of the poorest and fastest growing populations in the world. Analyses of precipitation, temperatures, and hydrological characteristics of selected stations in the Lake Victoria basin show that cholera epidemics are closely associated with El Niño years. Similarly, sustained temperatures high above normal (T(max)) in two consecutive seasons, followed by a slight cooling in the second season, trigger an outbreak of a cholera epidemic. The health and socioeconomic systems that the lake basin communities rely upon are not robust enough to cope with cholera outbreaks, thus rendering them vulnerable to the impact of climate variability and change. Collectively, this report argues that communities living around the Lake Victoria basin are vulnerable to climate-induced cholera that is aggravated by the low socioeconomic status and lack of an adequate health care system. In assessing the communities' adaptive capacity, the report concludes that persistent levels of poverty have made these communities vulnerable to cholera epidemics.

Endemic malaria in most of the hot and humid African climates is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In the last twenty or so years the incidence of malaria has been aggravated by the resurgence of highland malaria epidemics which hitherto had been rare. A close association between malaria epidemics and climate variability has been reported but not universally accepted. Similarly, the relationship between climate variability, intensity of disease mortality and morbidity coupled with socio-economic factors has been mooted. Analyses of past climate (temperature and precipitation), hydrological and health data , and socio-economics status of communities from the East African highlands confirm the link between climate variability and the incidence and severity of malaria epidemics. The communities in the highlands that have had less exposure to malaria are more vulnerable than their counterparts in the lowlands due to lack of clinical immunity. However, the vulnerability of human health to climate variability is influenced by the coping and adaptive capacities of an individual or community. Surveys conducted among three communities in the East African highlands reveal that the interplay of poverty and other socio-economic variables have intensified the vulnerability of these communities to the impacts of malaria.

The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region‐specific management strategies.

The Central Kenya Rift contains small soda lakes such as Nakuru, Elmenteita and Bogoria, freshwater Lake Naivasha, and the partly (spatially) freshwater Lake Baringo. The hydrology of this area is controlled mainly by climate, tectonically controlled morphological and volcanic barriers, faults, and local water-table variations. Much of the area relies on groundwater for human and industrial use, though there are widespread quality issues particularly in relation to fluoride. Despite the huge demand for the resource, little is known about the highly complex groundwater systems; lacking monitoring data, an assessment is developed on the basis of regional geological, hydrogeological and hydrochemical analyses. Significant hydrological changes have taken place in the region over the last 10 000 years as a result of global, regional and local changes, but the impacts on groundwater resources are still largely unknown. The IPCC projects a 10-15% increase of rainfall in the area, but it may not necessarily result in a proportional increase in groundwater recharge. High groundwater recharge periods appear to be anchored on a decadal cycle.Key words Holocene; hydrology; groundwater; climate change; Central Kenya Rift; lake basins Paléohydrologie Holocène, eaux souterraines et changement climatique dans les bassins lacustres du Rift du Centre du Kenya Résumé Le Rift du Centre du Kenya contient de petits lacs salés tels que les lacs Nakuru, Elmenteita et Bogoria, le Lac Naivasha d'eau douce, et le Lac Baringo partiellement (spatialement) d'eau douce. L'hydrologie de cette zone est principalement contrôlée par le climat, des barrières volcaniques et morphologiques sous contraintes tectoniques, des failles, et des variations piézométriques locales. La plupart de la région compte sur les eaux souterraines pour satisfaire les besoins domestiques et industriels, bien que les problèmes de qualité soient largement présents en particulier en termes de fluorures. En dépit des besoins immenses vis-à-vis de la ressource, la connaissance des systèmes hydrogéologiques hautement complexes est faible. Manquant de données de suivi, une évaluation est développée sur la base d'analyses régionales géologiques, hydrogéologiques et hydrochimiques. Des changements hydrologiques significatifs ont eu lieu dans la région au cours des 10 000 dernières années suite à des changements globaux, régionaux et locaux, mais les impacts sur les ressources en eaux souterraines sont largement inconnus. Le GIEC prévoit une augmentation de 10-15% de la pluviosité dans la région, mais qui ne résultera pas nécessairement en une augmentation proportionnelle de la recharge de nappe. Des périodes de forte recharge en eaux souterraines apparaissent être inscrites dans un cycle décennal.

No abstract

Non-technical summaryThe El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we found businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption – and supporting the private sector to adapt – is a development priority.

Sweet potato is one of the most important staple food crops consumed in Kenya and throughout Africa but yields are greatly reduced by plant parasitic nematodes (PPN). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of PPN in Kenyan sweet potato fields and their relationship with soil and climatic variables. Soil samples were collected from sweet potato fields in Busia, Teso, Kisii, Embu and Makueni counties. Thirteen nematode genera were identified across the five counties with Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus and Rotylenchus being the most prevalent. There was a significant (P <0.05) relationship between PPN abundance and sodium, calcium and iron. Canonical correspondence analysis of climatic variables revealed that the relationship between rainfall and nematode genera was significant (P <0.05) while maximum and minimum temperatures were not significant. This description of PPN assemblages associated with sweet potato in Kenya and their relationship with environmental variables provides a starting point from which appropriate nematode management strategies can be implemented.

No abstract