Introduction. The article focuses on reconstructing the major parameters of the complex of challenges and threats to post-Soviet Central Asia regional security that has emerged in the wake of or in direct connection with the radical change of the situation in Afghanistan after August 2021. These challenges and threats have developed across several functional and territorial dimensions and require a comprehensive analysis followed by the building of scenarios for their evolution. Methods and materials. The research relies on the regional security complex theory developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Waever. The methodological toolkit includes external indirect observation, political descriptive and historical genetic methods, scenario building. The research materials include official statements, news briefs, expert opinions, periodicals, academic papers. Analysis. The authors have analyzed the geostrategic, regional-strategic, regional-economic, and regional-societal dimensions of the challenges and threats to Central Asian regional security generated by the changes in Afghanistan and have built scenarios of their evolution. The major geostrategic challenge is the exacerbation of U.S. – Chinese contradictions centered on the influence of the Taliban factions. The key regional-strategic threat is the risk of the Afghan conflict spilling over into Tajikistan or Turkmenistan. The regional-economic challenges include the risks of blocking trans-Afghan transport, pipeline, and electricity transmission projects. The regional-societal risks consist of the dissemination of radical Islamist ideologies from Afghanistan throughout Central Asia. The two basic scenarios of the regional security evolution are inertia or a resumption of a full-scale civil war in Afghanistan. Results. The authors have worked out sets of recommendations for regional policymakers and the intergovernmental bodies whose functions include maintaining security and stability in Central Asia. Authors’ contribution. A.E. Dzhorobekova has developed the general concept of the article and organized the research. E.F. Troitskiy has focused on the analysis of threats and challenges to regional security. S.M. Yun has developed scenarios for regional security situations. A.G. Timoshenko has formulated the relevant recommendations.
1. Migratory species are protected under international legislation; their seasonal movements across international borders may therefore present opportunities for understanding how global conservation policies translate to local-level actions across different socio-ecological contexts. Moreover, local-level management of migratory species can reveal how culture and governance affects progress towards achieving global targets. Here, we investigate potential misalignment in the two-way relationship between global-level conservation policies (i.e. hunting bans and quotas) and local-level norms, values and actions (i.e. legal and illegal hunting) in the context of waterfowl hunting in northern Kazakhstan as a case-study. 2. Northern Kazakhstan is globally important for waterfowl and a key staging area for arctic-breeding species. Hunting is managed through licences, quotas and seasonal bans under UN-AEWA intergovernmental agreements. To better understand the local socio-ecological context of waterfowl hunting, we take a mixed-methods approach using socio-ecological surveys, informal discussions and population modelling of a focal migratory goose species to: (a) investigate motivations for hunting in relation to socio-economic factors; (b) assess knowledge of species' protection status; and (c) predict the population size of Lesser White-fronted Geese (LWfG; Anser erythropus; IUCN Vulnerable) under different scenarios of survival rates and hunting offtake, to understand how goose population demographics interact with the local socio-ecological context.3. Model results showed no evidence that waterfowl hunting is motivated by financial gain; social and cultural importance were stronger factors. The majority of hunters are knowledgeable about species' protection status; however, 11% did not know LWfG are protected, highlighting a key area for increased stakeholder engagement.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.