Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring–based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33–45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.
with 8 figures, 4 tables and 1 appendix Dedication. Prof. Dr. Salvador Rivas-Martínez and we were sitting near the camp on Mt. Tolbachik in Kamtchatka. We heard about his admiration of nature, about vegetation, bioclimate, phytosociology, and about some histories in his life. It was an unforgettable wonderful night for us. Sitting in front of the camp-fire we sincerely hoped that he will stay healthy and will continue working in vegetation science.
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