Fatigue cracking is a key type of defect for liquid pipelines, and managing fatigue cracks has been a top priority and a big challenge for liquid pipeline operators. The existing inline inspection (ILI) tools for pipeline defect evaluation have large fatigue crack measurement uncertainties. Furthermore, the current physics-based methods are mainly used for fatigue crack growth prediction, where the same or a small range of fixed model parameters is used for all pipes. They result in uncertainty that is managed through the use of conservative safety factors such as adding depth uncertainty to the measured depth in deciding integrity management and risk mitigation strategies. In this study, an integrated approach is proposed for pipeline fatigue crack growth prediction utilizing ILI data including consideration of crack depth measurement uncertainty. This approach is done by integrating the physical models, including the stress analysis models, the crack growth model governed by the Paris’ law, and the ILI data. With the proposed integrated approach, the finite element (FE) model of a cracked pipe is built and the stress analysis is performed. ILI data are utilized to update the uncertain physical parameters for the individual pipe being considered so that a more accurate fatigue crack growth prediction can be achieved. Time-varying loading conditions are considered in the proposed integrated method by using rainflow counting method. The proposed integrated prognostics approach is compared with the existing physics-based method using examples based on simulated data. Field data provided by a Canadian pipeline operator are also employed for the validation of the proposed method. The examples and case studies in this paper demonstrate the limitations of the existing physics-based method, and the promise of the proposed method for achieving accurate fatigue crack growth prediction as continuous improvement of ILI technologies further reduces ILI measurement uncertainty.

The use of integrity reliability science is becoming a prevalent element in the pipeline integrity management process. One of the key elements in this process is defining what integrity reliability targets to achieve in order to maintain the safety of the system. IPC2016-64425 presented different industry approaches around the area of defining reliability target levels for pipelines. It discussed the importance of setting operators’ specific integrity target reliability levels, how to choose such targets, and how to determine the safety of a pipeline asset by comparing the probability of failure (PoF) against an integrity permissible probability of failure (PoFp) while keeping an eye on the estimated expected number of failures. Building upon the previous discussion, this paper reviews a risk-based approach for estimating integrity reliability targets that account for the consequence of a potential release. Given available technical publications, the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) concept, and operators’ specific risk tolerances, there is room for improving the communication of integrity reliability along with selected targets. The paper describes how codes, standards, and operators set reliability targets, how operator specific targets can be chosen, and how industry currently recommends liquid pipelines reliability targets. Moreover, the paper proposes different approaches to define practical reliability targets coupled with an integrity risk-informed decision making framework.

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Integrity reliability analysis is becoming an important component of effective pipeline integrity management systems. It aims at utilizing reliability engineering to address integrity uncertainties and check pipeline reliability measures against safety objectives/targets. In current practice, pipeline safety is typically verified using simplified deterministic procedures based on a safety factor approach that is tailored to the design of new pipes. A more realistic verification of actual safety performance of existing pipelines can be achieved by probabilistic methods where uncertainties of basic random variables are considered and the impact on the reliability of the system is analyzed. To enable such an approach, specification of integrity target reliability levels is required in order to benchmark the safety level of an existing pipeline system. The probability of failure (PoF) per pipeline segment or unit length is quantified and then checked against an integrity permissible probability of failure (PoFp) or integrity target reliability (1-PoFp). This check against a specified reliability target allows the operator to confidently determine whether a segment of pipe is safe at current operating conditions while considering identified uncertainties. However, the main challenge around reliability targets is choosing such targets to begin with. This paper presents a semi-quantitative validation approach for estimating integrity reliability targets based on calibrating past failure incidents and evaluating PoF at the time of failure. Accounting for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in assigning the integrity targets, pipeline operators can gauge how to choose such targets and how to be flexible in terms of customizing integrity targets based on their asset performance and adopted integrity programs. A brief summary of published reliability targets in pipeline and non-pipeline industries is presented herein.

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