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Mechanistic models such as those based on dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory are emergent ecomechanics tools to investigate the extent of fitness in organisms through changes in life history traits as explained by bioenergetic principles. The rapid growth in interest around this approach originates from the mechanistic characteristics of DEB, which are based on a number of rules dictating the use of mass and energy flow through organisms. One apparent bottleneck in DEB applications comes from the estimations of DEB parameters which are based on mathematical and statistical methods (covariation method). The parameterisation process begins with the knowledge of some functional traits of a target organism (e.g. embryo, sexual maturity and ultimate body size, feeding and assimilation rates, maintenance costs), identified from the literature or laboratory experiments. However, considering the prominent role of the mechanistic approach in ecology, the reduction of possible uncertainties is an important objective. We propose a revaluation of the laboratory procedures commonly used in ecological studies to estimate DEB parameters in marine bivalves. Our experimental organism was Brachidontes pharaonis. We supported our proposal with a validation exercise which compared life history traits as obtained by DEBs (implemented with parameters obtained using classical laboratory methods) with the actual set of species traits obtained in the field. Correspondence between the 2 approaches was very high (> 95%) with respect to estimating both size and fitness. Our results demonstrate a good agreement between field data and model output for the effect of temperature and food density on age-size curve, maximum body size and total gamete production per life span. The mechanistic approach is a promising method of providing accurate predictions in a world that is under increasing anthropogenic pressure.KEY WORDS: Mechanistic models · Dynamic energy budget · Bivalve · Parameterisation methods · Brachidontes pharaonis · Mediterranean Sea Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

Aim We used a coupled biophysical ecology (BE)-physiological mechanistic modelling approach based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB, Dynamic energy budget theory for metabolic organisation, 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; DEB) to generate spatially explicit predictions of physiological performance (maximal size and reproductive output) for the invasive mussel, Brachidontes pharaonis.Location We examined 26 sites throughout the central Mediterranean Sea.Methods We ran models under subtidal and intertidal conditions; hourly weather and water temperature data were obtained from the Italian Buoy Network, and monthly CHL-a data were obtained from satellite imagery.Results Mechanistic analysis of the B. pharaonis fundamental niche shows that subtidal sites in the Central Mediterranean are generally suitable for this invasive bivalve but that intertidal habitats appear to serve as genetic sinks.Main conclusions A BE-DEB approach enabled an assessment of how the physical environment affects the potential distribution of B. pharaonis. Combined with models of larval dispersal, this approach can provide estimates of the likelihood that an invasive species will become established.

BackgroundIn Italy HPV vaccination with the quadrivalent vaccine (Gardasil®) is offered actively and free of charge to girls aged 12 since 2007. A nine-valent vaccine (Gardasil 9®) received the European market authorization in 2015 to protect, with only 2 doses, against around 90% of all HPV positive cancers, over 80% of high-grade precancerous lesions and 90% of genital warts caused by HPV types 6/11.MethodsA dynamic transmission model simulating the natural history of HPV-infections was calibrated to the Italian setting and used to estimate costs and QALYs associated with vaccination strategies. The analyses compared two strategies with the nine-valent vaccine (cervical cancer screening and vaccination in girls only or vaccination in boys and girls) to four alternative strategies (cervical cancer screening and vaccination with quadrialent vaccine in girls only, in both boys and girls, with bivalent vaccine in girls and screening strategy only). The National Health Service perspective was considered.ConclusionThe switch to the nine-valent vaccine in Italy can further reduce the burden associated to cervical cancer and HPV-related diseases and is highly cost-effective.ResultsCompared to the current vaccination program with quadrivalent vaccine, the nine-valent vaccine in a programme including girls and boys shows further reductions of 17% in the incidence of cervical cancer, 35 and 14% in anal cancer for males and females, as well as over a million cases of genital warts avoided after 100 years. The new technology is associated with an ICER of 10,463€ per QALY gained in universal vaccination, decreasing to 4483€ when considering the vaccine switch for girls-only.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12962-017-0073-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

ObjectiveTo describe how Italian medical societies interact with pharmaceutical and medical device industries through an analysis of the information available on their websites.DesignCross sectional study.SettingItaly.Participants154 medical societies registered with the Italian Federation of Medical-Scientific Societies.Main outcome measuresIndicators of industry sponsorship (presence of industry sponsorship in the programme of the last medical societies’ annual conference; presence of manufacturers’ logos on the homepage; presence of industry sponsorship of satellite symposia during the last annual conference).Results131 Italian medical societies were considered. Of these, 4.6% had an ethical code covering relationships with industry on their websites, while 45.6% had a statute that mentioned the issue of conflict of interest and 6.1% published the annual financial report. With regard to industry sponsorship, 64.9% received private sponsorship for their last conference, 29.0% had manufacturers’ logos on their webpage, while 35.9% had industry-sponsored satellite symposia at their last conference. The presence of an ethical code on the societies’ websites was associated with both an increased risk of industry sponsorship of the last conference (relative risk (RR) 1.22, 95% CIs 1.01 to 1.48 after adjustment) and of conferences and/or satellite symposia (RR 1.22, 95% CIs 1.02 to 1.48 after adjustment) but not with the presence of manufacturers’ logos on the websites (RR 1.79, 95% CIs 0.66 to 4.82 after adjustment). No association was observed with the other indicators of governance and transparency.ConclusionsThis survey shows that industry sponsorship of Italian medical societies’ conferences is common, while the presence of a structured regulatory system is not. Disclosure of the amount of industry funding to medical societies is scarce. The level of transparency therefore needs to be improved and the whole relationship between medical societies and industry should be further disciplined in order to avoid any potential for conflict of interest.

There is a dire need to forecast the ecological impacts of global climate change at scales relevant to policy and management. We used three interconnected models (climatic, biophysical and energetics) to estimate changes in growth, reproduction and mortality risk by 2050, for three commercially and ecologically important bivalves at 51 sites in the Mediterranean Sea. These results predict highly variable responses (both positive and negative) in the time to reproductive maturity and in the risk of lethality among species and sites that do not conform to simple latitudinal gradients, and which would be undetectable by methods focused only on lethal limits and/or range boundaries

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