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SUMMARYThe present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

Results obtained with two versions of the Limited Area Model (LAM) ALADIN over differently sized integration domains (large, intermediate and small) in the European area are presented in order to investigate both the general model performance and the influence of domain choice on the quality of obtained results. The aim is also to illustrate the issues related to the strategy of selection of the optimal integration domain. Each of these studies has been performed with two versions of the ALADIN model: the first one is ALADIN-CLIMATE developed at CNRM/Météo-France, the second one is ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ prepared at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). This leaves us with total of six experiments forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalysis data. The west Balkan domain covering Bulgaria is used as an evaluation region for investigation of the temporal and spatial properties of simulated precipitation and temperature fields. This region has been selected for its challenging orography making the results obtained here a valuable source for studies leading to further developments in climate modeling. It was found that size of the domain strongly affects the quality of obtained results. We have found that the largest domain reproduces the spatial characteristics of climate (such as bias) very well, but its use results in a poor representation of temporal aspects, which are however captured very well in experiments over both smaller domains. Our findings suggest that there is no optimal choice of domain size, securing the best results for both spatial and temporal evaluation. Our study also proves that model ALADIN can be efficiently used for climate research purposes, which together with its modest computational demands should make it as an attractive modeling choice for the Central and Eastern European climate research community. K e y w o r d s : ALADIN, climate modeling, domain size, ECMWF, ERA-40 reanalysis A. Farda et al. 314 Stud. Geophys. Geod., 54 (2010)

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