Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests at a high spatial resolution: a novel approach

Abstract

SUMMARYThe present study is focused on the potential occurrence of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), an important potato pest, and the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hübner 1796), the most important maize pest, during climate change. Estimates of the current potential distribution of both pest species as well as their distribution in the expected climate conditions are based on the CLIMEX model. The study covers central Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and parts of Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Switzerland, Ukraine, Slovenia, the northern parts of Serbia, parts of Croatia and northern Italy. The validated model of the pests’ geographical distribution was applied within the domain of the regional climate model (RCM) ALADIN, at a resolution of 10 km. The weather series that was the input for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (WG) which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961–90). To generate a weather series for two future time periods (2021–50 and 2071–2100), the WG parameters were modified according to 12 climate change scenarios produced by the pattern scaling method. The standardized scenarios derived from three global climate models (HadCM, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM) were scaled by low, middle and high values of global temperature change estimated by the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model (assuming three combinations of climatic sensitivity and emission scenarios). The results of present study suggest the likely widening of the pests’ habitats and an increase in the number of generations per year. According to the HadCM-high scenario, the area of arable land affected by a third generation per season of Colorado potato beetle in 2050 is c. 45% higher, and by a second generation of the European corn borer is nearly 61% higher, compared to present levels.

Shifted migration of the rape stem weevil Ceutorhynchus napi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) linked to climate change

“…Carvalho et al (2010), we used a single biological impact model, but an ensemble of climate change projections based on the same greenhouse gas emission scenario, A1B (Solomon et al, 2007). Thus, it is possible to adequately capture the range of uncertainties associated with climate projections (Beaumont et al, 2007) and to understand the range of effects that are expected in the future (Kocmánková et al, 2011).…”

“…Effects of global change on applied plant protection were recently reviewed (Juroszek & Tiedemann, 2013), and possible impacts of increasing air temperature are expected, especially for pest species (Kocmánková et al, 2011) in agricultural crop production. So far, the effects of climate change on herbivore phenology in oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) have been described for the cabbage seedpod weevil, Ceutorhynchus obstrictus (Marsham) (Olfert & Weiss, 2006), and the cabbage stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus pallidactylus (Mrsh.)…”

Climate Change Impacts on Czech Agriculture

“…The input weather series for the CLIMEX model was prepared by a weather generator (Dubrovský et al, 2000, which was calibrated with the RCM-simulated weather series (for the period of 1961-90). To generate weather series representing possible climate conditions in 2050, the WG parameters were modified according to climate change scenarios (Dubrovský et al, 2005) (more detailed description in Kocmánková et al, 2011). …”

“…A similar trend in the increase of the high temperature limitation is also seen in the NCAR-PCM-high and HadCM-high scenarios, which show all of Hungary, Croatia and the north of Italy having a decrease in the number of generations per year. Detail figures depicting results of ECHAM-high and NCAR-PCM-high scenarios see in Kocmánková et al, 2011). Grey areas represent the area without an occurrence of the pest due to the incomplete first generation, blue areas show a recorded decrease in EI, i.e., the shift to less favourable climate conditions for the pest development, white colour marks the areas without any change and the colour scale (yellow to orange) points the increase in the number of particular generations.…”

“…HadCMhigh presumes a prevailing increase of about one generation, which will probably result in the presence of a third generation in the eastern part of Austria, the north of Italy and the western part of Germany (Rhine valley), where there are currently two generations per season. The NCAR-high climate sensitivity scenario (see in Kocmánková et al, 2011) assumes a wider spread, covering a major part of Hungary, Croatia and the whole simulated part of Italy. Under the expected future climate conditions in Central and Eastern Europe, as expressed by selected climate change scenarios, crop damage by both the Colorado potato beetle (L. decemlineata) and European corn borer (O. nubilalis) is likely to increase.…”