The article discusses the application possibilities of machine learning methods (artificial neural networks (ANN) and genetic algorithms (GA) to form management actions when applying the concept of situational management for intelligent support of strategic decision-making on the development of energy. At the first stage, the application of ANN to classify extreme situations in the energy sector, to select the most effective management actions (preventive measures) in order to prevent a critical situation from developing into an emergency. Genetic algorithms are proposed to be used to determine the weighting coefficients for training ANN. An algorithm for constructing a classifier based on a neural network and a demonstration task using data on generation and consumption of the United Electric Power System of Siberia are presented.
The paper considers the issues of implementation and application of intelligent computing on the basis of cognitive and event modeling in research on energy security. The authors suggest a two-level information technology for the research. The first level suggests a situation analysis using the intelligent computing techniques. The analysis results are then used to choose rational variants of energy development in Russia (or its regions). At the second level these variants are computed with the multi-agent software INTEC-M. Transition from the first to the second level is automated by the tools of deductive program synthesis, that are based on declarative descriptions, i.e. formulae of restricted predicate calculus, and representation of input data by XML files. Cognitive and event modeling is considered in more detail. The examples of cognitive and event models are presented. The structure of a knowledge space is developed to support the intelligent computations. The knowledge space includes ontological models, databases of cognitive and event models, and the database on the cases of energy emergency situations. The authors developed the CogMap and EventMap tools to support cognitive and event modeling on the basis of common graphical environment GirModeling, and the expert system “Emergency”. The tools and expert system that support the knowledge base on energy emergencies are integrated within the intelligent IT environment. The research presented in the paper was partially supported by the grant of Presidium of RAS No. 2.2-2012 and grants of Russian Foundation of Basic Research No. 10-07-00264, No. 11-07-00192, No. 11-07-00245, and No. 12-07-00359.
The article discusses the concepts of Smart Grid and the digital power industry being developed in Russia. The main information technologies offered for their implementation are analyzed. It is proposed to include in this list intelligent technologies to support strategic energy development decisions,. Three generations of such tools developed in a team headed by the authors are considered. The proposed Intellectual tools are based on the concepts of situational management and semantic modeling. It is noted that the third version seems to be the most perspective. Examples of semantic models and schemes of the proposed intelligent tools are given.
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