This paper analyses the relationship between real GDP and CO 2 emissions for 17 transitional economies based on a series of annual data from 1997 to 2014. The analysis was conducted using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) (DOLS) and Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) approaches. The results clearly suggest the existence of a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship between CO 2 emissions and real GDP. A 1% change in GDP leads to around a 0.35% change of CO 2 emission on average for the considered group of countries. Close values of long-run coefficients for all estimations confirm the robustness of the estimated results. The authors state that transitional economies need to follow global policy incentives, and try to implement new mechanisms and instruments for the purpose of reducing CO 2 emissions, such as environmental taxes, emissions-trading schemes, and carbon capture and storage, if they want to achieve future CO 2 emission reductions, while attaining economic growth.
This paper examines the relationship between FDI inflow per capita and unemployment rates in 17 transition countries over the period [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013][2014]
In Serbia irrigation is not widely utilized to reduce water scarcity in crop production. Therefore, wheat yields largely depend on weather factors. Over the past two decades, there has been recorded a significant change in weather conditions in Serbia. Such change produces concerns about Serbia's food security and exports since wheat is among the most important agricultural products. In this paper authors analyze and quantify the impact of weather factors on the achieved wheat yields, using a set of panel data on selected Serbian municipalities in fourteen years (2000-2013). The multidimensional regression was conducted as a sort of quasi-experiment, combining data on achieved yields in selected municipalities, with data on weather factors: temperature, precipitation, extraterrestrial radiation, and evapotranspiration. Utilizing the Hargreaves method of determining reference evapotranspiration, average daily water deficit was computed as a single representative indicator of weather conditions. Testing was conducted on four predefined sub-periods within the vegetation season of wheat, and the impact of average daily water deficit on wheat yields was estimated for each of these sub-periods. Results show a robust, statistically significant impact of change in average daily water deficit on decreased wheat yields. Growth of water deficit by 0.1 mm, in the period November 15th to April 1st results with 175 kg/ha lower yields, while in the period April 1st to May 15th results in 45 kg/ha lower yields. Impact shows to be conditional on the altitude, rapidly losing on intensity and significance above 100 m.
Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively affects sustainability of public pension systems financed by the principle of intergenerational solidarity (Pay-As-You-Go) - widely represented in public pension schemes of European countries. In this paper, impact of demographic ageing on pension systems is analyzed in the context of sustainability of public finance in Serbia in the period 2010-2050. Although the comparative analysis of the pension expenditure share in gross domestic product (GDP) does not point to significant differences between Serbia and the countries in the neighborhood and the European Union, the growth trend of subsidizing the Pension Fund from the government budget endangers medium-term sustainability of the public pension system in Serbia, bearing in mind that the implementation of measures proposed in pension reforms can be valorized only in the long run. The main objective of the analysis is projecting long-term pension expenditure as a share of GDP. The projections were formed indirectly by modeling the average pension expenditure, because this variable incorporates both growth in the total pension expenditure and growth in the number of pensioners as a result of demographic trends, and better reflects the actual growth of pension expenditure. For the purposes of the analysis, in addition to the projection of real GDP growth, size of the inactive population aged 65 and over, as the main contingent of the pension system users and the total number of pensioners, was projected by means of stochastic cohort component methodology. Based on these projections and assumptions about the growth rate of average pension expenditure (three scenarios), the projections of total pension expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) are produced for the period 2010-2050. The results indicate that the growth rate of pension expenditure over the past few years is unsustainable in the long run. However, there is fiscal space for continuous real growth of pensions that does not jeopardize the budget deficit on the medium term, and leads to long-term reduction of the share of pension expenditures in GDP. The proposed change would not affect sustainability of the pension system and consequently public finance in Serbia, even in completely certain circumstances of significant increase in the number of elderly and their pressure on the workforce. In this context, critical review of the current government approach to the pension growth dynamics was given from the perspective of medium-term sustainability of pension system, which resulted in appropriate recommendations. Generally, the intent of the Government of the Republic of Serbia on the indexation of pensions represent a good soluti...
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