This paper examines selectivity of refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina in Serbia with respect to certain demographic and socio-economic structures. Analyses indicated that the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of these refugees are significantly more favourable than those of other refugees in Serbia and those in the place of origin. The results show that refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina who, because of war, have sought refuge in Serbia are positively selective compared to the population that moved shorter distances (i.e. within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina) for the same reason.Their educational level and participation in the Belgrade workforce, the main urban and functional centre and pole of demographic concentration, support the hypothesis that despite the forced nature of their migration, movement to Serbia as a destination rather than migration within Bosnia and Herzegovina was partly determined by economic factors in keeping with the structural characteristics of the refugees. The directions of recent refugee migrations from Bosnia and Herzegovina to Serbia have continued the historic trend of previous migrations on the territory of the former Yugoslavia. To be specific, the centres with the highest concentrations of recent refugees from Bosnia and Herzegovina are precisely those municipalities with the greatest number of persons who migrated from Bosnia and Herzegovina before 1991.

Serbia still hosts the largest number of forced migrants in Europe. The paper examines the impact of the refugee influx from newly formed states on the territory of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) into Serbia on the future demographic trends of the country. Examination of the past population projections of Serbia confirmed that the process of predicting migration flows is related to the greatest source of uncertainty compared to all other components of demographic change. The results of our projection of Serbia's population through 2050 show that the large influx of refugees during the last decade of the 20th century should not have a significant impact on the future demographic change of Serbia. Even in the case of substantial improvement of total fertility rate (2.35 in final projection year, comparing to current 1.55), no positive demographic effect should be experienced.Continuation of the decline in Serbia's total population size cannot be offset by recent refugee influx for several reasons. The most important of them are: too small number of migrants comparing to the total population size of Serbia; similarity in fertility behaviour between refugee and indigenous population; the large-scaled emigration during the same period; much older refugee population compared to emigrant population; and the processes of refugee repatriation and resettlement. A purely hypothetical projection variant assuming the migration required to maintain the size of current total population size of Serbia until 2050 points out the need for almost three times the amount of average annual migration surplus caused by the refugee influx.

After the dissolution of the socialist Yugoslavia (SFRY) in 1991, the quality and availability of demographic and migration statistics in the region as a whole, and especially in some of its parts are deteriorated. In addition, census rounds are not being held regularly throughout the region as of 1991. Thus, producing population projections has become rather challenging in comparison to the period of SFRY. This paper made an effort in order to overcome obstacles in terms of historic data and jump-off projection values for the whole region in accordance with adjusted data from national records. Until 1991, population of the region had been increasing almost linearly. Although SFRY was characterized by significant sub-regional differences in terms of the beginning and the pace of demographic transition, the current total fertility rate throughout the region is below 2.1. The aim of the paper is to consider the long-term implications of low fertility and whether in this respect there would be a demographic homogenization of the region. For that purpose, we relied on the UN WPP2015 model used by the UN Population Division for producing its 2015 World Population Prospects. It enabled several important features from the viewpoint of the main tasks of the paper: the methodologically consistent datasets on main demographic indicators, probabilistic approach for modelling and forecasting fertility and mortality, the opportunity to adjust initial datasets for known issues on data quality (Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia & Herzeg.), and ability to adjust data distribution according to the former administrative division of SFRY. The last one was of particular importance as it allowed us to take into account the well-known diversity of fertility patterns in Serbia (Vojvodina, Central Serbia and Kosovo), and to make a distinction in projection results between the sub-regions differed by the onset and tempo of fertility transition. The UN concept of post-transition recovery of total fertility rate is lying behind the hypotheses of future TFR. According to the model, Slovenia and Vojvodina has been already entered the post-transitional phase. Central Serbia and Macedonia are first to join them (as of 2020), followed by Croatia and Bosnia & Herzeg. (2025), and Montenegro (2030). However, the fertility transition in Kosovo could last until 2070. The greatest chance (median distribution of the simulated trajectories) is that TFR in the SFRY region will converge to the levels projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, except in Slovenia (1.89). Hypotheses on migration in deterministic manner were based on the ?migration cycle model? introduced by Fassmann and Reeger (2012), which assume that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net immigration. Since the strategic objectives of all governments in the region are consistent when it comes to joining the EU, it is taken as a pivotal condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition. The symbolic turning point in the transition process in the region (2035) implies that the whole region will become the part of the EU by then. Kosovo is assumed to be the only territory not able to achieve the net immigration during The greatest chances (median of the distribution) are that the population in the region of SFRY will be reduced by 16.9% between 2015 and 2055, which puts this region among the ones that are going to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%) in global terms - mainly countries of the former Eastern bloc and Japan. According to the median of prediction intervals, a sharp decline is expected in Vojvodina (31.7%), Cent. Serbia (27.2 %), Bosnia & Herzeg. (22.0%), and Croatia (18.9%), which is similar to the countries that were expected to experience the greatest population decrease in the world by 2050 - Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova. The region reversal to the historic population maximum of 1990 seems to be not possible even in conditions of the above replacement fertility. A zone of depopulation emerged along the eastern rim of the EU, which, according to the UN model, is the most prominent depopulation zone in global terms. Prediction intervals indicate that by the mid-century, with the exception of Kosovo, only Slovenia has some chances (35%) to maintain the current population size. However, to return to its maximum population by 2100 some chance has only Slovenia (almost 30%), and only minimal Montenegro (8%), and Kosovo (5%). Old-age dependency ratio in the SFRY region is likely to double by the mid-century, while the prediction intervals suggest that even a return to the current unfavourable level is outside of the range of possible outcomes throughout the region. It is the most important long-term demographic implication of low fertility. Yet, that rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which in view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity) is not necessarily bad. One of the conclusions is that the significant increase in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of 2.1, which current official projections (Cent. Serbia, Vojvodina, Montenegro, and Croatia) consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far beyond the possible outcomes. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 47006]

This study considers the spatial and temporal dimensions of demographic trends in Serbia between 1961 and 2010. Using appropriate spatial autocorrelation statistics, spatial patterns of common demographic indicators including changes in population size, the rate of natural increase and infant mortality rate are investigated across municipalities of Serbia. Also, the impact of differential demographic rates according to ethnic origin on forming spatial clusters is implicitly considered. Different stages of demographic transition across municipalities at the start of the analyzed period determined the spatial pattern of clustered subregions; ethnic origin appeared to be a strong factor of differentiation regarding population dynamics. The two opposed areas regarding the transition of rates of natural increase and infant mortality were clustered; the southern included Kosovo and the least developed subregions of Central Serbia. The City of Belgrade and Kosovo have been the two hubs of population growth in Serbia over the past 50 years, while the strongest depopulation refers to the north and east border regions.