The space-based Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to observe the gravitational-wave signals from systems comprised of a massive black hole and a stellar-mass compact object. These systems are known as extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) and are expected to complete ∼ 10 4 -10 5 cycles in band, thus allowing exquisite measurements of their parameters. In this work, we attempt to quantify the astrophysical uncertainties affecting the predictions for the number of EMRIs detectable by LISA, and find that competing astrophysical assumptions produce a variance of about three orders of magnitude in the expected intrinsic EMRI rate. However, we find that irrespective of the astrophysical model, at least a few EMRIs per year should be detectable by the LISA mission, with up to a few thousands per year under the most optimistic astrophysical assumptions. We also investigate the precision with which LISA will be able to extract the parameters of these sources. We find that typical fractional statistical errors with which the intrinsic parameters (redshifted masses, massive black hole spin and orbital eccentricity) can be recovered are ∼ 10 −6 -10 −4 . Luminosity distance (which is required to infer true masses) is inferred to about 10% precision and sky position is localized to a few square degrees, while tests of the multipolar structure of the Kerr metric can be performed to percent-level precision or better.

Massive black hole binary systems, with masses in the range ∼104–1010 M⊙, are among the primary sources of gravitational waves in the frequency window ∼10−9–0.1 Hz. Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs) and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) are the observational means by which we will be able to observe gravitational radiation from these systems. We carry out a systematic study of the generation of the stochastic gravitational‐wave background from the cosmic population of massive black hole binaries. We consider a wide variety of assembly scenarios and we estimate the range of signal strength in the frequency band accessible to PTAs. We show that regardless of the specific model of massive black hole binaries formation and evolution, the characteristic amplitude hc of the gravitational‐wave stochastic background at 10−8 Hz varies by less than a factor of 2. However, taking into account the uncertainties surrounding the actual key model parameters, the amplitude lies in the interval hc(f= 10−8 Hz) ≈ 5 × 10−16–8 × 10−15. The most optimistic predictions place the signal level at a factor of ≈3 below the current sensitivity of PTAs, but within the detection range of the complete Parkes PTA for a wide variety of models, and of the future Square‐Kilometer Array PTA for all the models considered here. We also show that at frequencies ≳10−8 Hz, the frequency dependency of the generated background follows a power law significantly steeper than hc∝f−2/3, which has been considered so far; the value of the spectral index depends on the actual assembly scenario and provides therefore an additional opportunity to extract astrophysical information about the cosmic population of massive black holes. Finally, we show that LISA observations of individual resolvable massive black hole binaries are complementary and orthogonal to PTA observations of a stochastic background from the whole population in the Universe. In fact, the detection of gravitational radiation in both frequency windows will enable us to fully characterize the cosmic history of massive black holes.

The grand challenges of contemporary fundamental physics—dark matter, dark energy, vacuum energy, inflation and early universe cosmology, singularities and the hierarchy problem—all involve gravity as a key component. And of all gravitational phenomena, black holes stand out in their elegant simplicity, while harbouring some of the most remarkable predictions of General Relativity: event horizons, singularities and ergoregions. The hitherto invisible landscape of the gravitational Universe is being unveiled before our eyes: the historical direct detection of gravitational waves by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration marks the dawn of a new era of scientific exploration. Gravitational-wave astronomy will allow us to test models of black hole formation, growth and evolution, as well as models of gravitational-wave generation and propagation. It will provide evidence for event horizons and ergoregions, test the theory of General Relativity itself, and may reveal the existence of new fundamental fields. The synthesis of these results has the potential to radically reshape our understanding of the cosmos and of the laws of Nature. The purpose of this work is to present a concise, yet comprehensive overview of the state of the art in the relevant fields of research, summarize important open problems, and lay out a roadmap for future progress. This write-up is an initiative taken within the framework of the European Action on ‘Black holes, Gravitational waves and Fundamental Physics’.

We review the expected science performance of the New Gravitational-Wave Observatory (NGO, a.k.a. eLISA), a mission under study by the European Space Agency for launch in the early 2020s. eLISA will survey the low-frequency gravitational-wave sky (from 0.1 mHz to 1 Hz), detecting and characterizing a broad variety of systems and events throughout the Universe, including the coalescences of massive black holes brought together by galaxy mergers; the inspirals of stellar-mass black holes and compact stars into central galactic black holes; several millions of ultra-compact binaries, both detached and mass transferring, in the Galaxy; and possibly unforeseen sources such as the relic gravitational-wave radiation from the early Universe. eLISA's high signal-tonoise measurements will provide new insight into the structure and history of the Universe, and they will test general relativity in its strong-field dynamical regime.

We present new limits on an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using a six pulsar dataset spanning 18 yr of observations from the 2015 European Pulsar Timing Array data release. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we fit simultaneously for the intrinsic noise parameters for each pulsar, along with common correlated signals including clock, and Solar System ephemeris errors, obtaining a robust 95% upper limit on the dimensionless strain amplitude A of the background of A < 3.0 × 10 −15 at a reference frequency of 1yr −1 and a spectral index of 13/3, corresponding to a background from inspiralling super-massive black hole binaries, constraining the GW energy density to Ω gw ( f )h 2 < 1.1 × 10 −9 at 2.8 nHz. We also present limits on the correlated power spectrum at a series of discrete frequencies, and show that our sensitivity to a fiducial isotropic GWB is highest at a frequency of ∼ 5×10 −9 Hz. Finally we discuss the implications of our analysis for the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries, and present 95% upper limits on the string tension, Gµ/c 2 , characterising a background produced by a cosmic string network for a set of possible scenarios, and for a stochastic relic GWB. For a Nambu-Goto field theory cosmic string network, we set a limit Gµ/c 2 < 1.3 × 10 −7 , identical to that set by the Planck Collaboration, when combining Planck and high-Cosmic Microwave Background data from other experiments. For a stochastic relic background we set a limit of Ω relic gw ( f )h 2 < 1.2 × 10 −9 , a factor of 9 improvement over the most stringent limits previously set by a pulsar timing array. c 0000 RAS arXiv:1504.03692v3 [astro-ph.CO] 9 Sep 2015

We compare the science capabilities of different eLISA mission designs, including four-link (twoarm) and six-link (three-arm) configurations with different arm lengths, low-frequency noise sensitivities and mission durations. For each of these configurations we consider a few representative massive black hole formation scenarios. These scenarios are chosen to explore two physical mechanisms that greatly affect eLISA rates, namely (i) black hole seeding, and (ii) the delays between the merger of two galaxies and the merger of the black holes hosted by those galaxies. We assess the eLISA parameter estimation accuracy using a Fisher matrix analysis with spin-precessing, inspiral-only waveforms. We quantify the information present in the merger and ringdown by rescaling the inspiral-only Fisher matrix estimates using the signal-to-noise ratio from non-precessing inspiral-merger-ringdown phenomenological waveforms, and from a reduced set of precessing numerical relativity/post-Newtonian hybrid waveforms. We find that all of the eLISA configurations considered in our study should detect some massive black hole binaries. However, configurations with six links and better low-frequency noise will provide much more information on the origin of black holes at high redshifts and on their accretion history, and they may allow the identification of electromagnetic counterparts to massive black hole mergers.

The International Pulsar Timing Array project combines observations of pulsars from both Northern and Southern hemisphere observatories with the main aim of detecting ultra-low frequency (∼ 10 −9 − 10 −8 Hz) gravitational waves. Here we introduce the project, review the methods used to search for gravitational waves emitted from coalescing supermassive binary black-hole systems in the centres of merging galaxies and discuss the status of the project.

We report on the high-precision timing of 42 radio millisecond pulsars (MSPs) observed by the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). This EPTA Data Release 1.0 extends up to mid-2014 and baselines range from 7-18 years. It forms the basis for the stochastic gravitationalwave background, anisotropic background, and continuous-wave limits recently presented by the EPTA elsewhere. The Bayesian timing analysis performed with TempoNest yields the detection of several new parameters: seven parallaxes, nine proper motions and, in the case of six binary pulsars, an apparent change of the semi-major axis. We find the NE2001 Galactic electron density model to be a better match to our parallax distances (after correction from the Lutz-Kelker bias) than the M2 and M3 models by Schnitzeler (2012). However, we measure an average uncertainty of 80% (fractional) for NE2001, three times larger than what is typically assumed in the literature. We revisit the transverse velocity distribution for a set of 19 isolated and 57 binary MSPs and find no statistical difference between these two populations. We detect Shapiro delay in the timing residuals of PSRs J1600−3053 and J1918−0642, implying pulsar and companion masses m p = 1.22 +0.5 −0.35 M ⊙ , m c = 0.21 +0.06 −0.04 M ⊙ and m p = 1.25 +0.6 −0.4 M ⊙ , m c = 0.23 +0.07 −0.05 M ⊙ , respectively. Finally, we use the measurement of the orbital period derivative to set a stringent constraint on the distance to PSRs J1012+5307 and J1909−3744, and set limits on the longitude of ascending node through the search of the annual-orbital parallax for PSRs J1600−3053 and J1909−3744.