Disaster risk mitigation has become a global urgent need. Similarly to other natural hazards, earthquakes may cause significant damage on a large scale. In Europe and in other regions with dense urbanization, seismic events can heavily impact historical city centres due to the several structural fragilities. These centers are often part of the worldwide cultural heritage and their preservation is considered a strategic issue. Furthermore, earthquakes may have severe negative short-term economic effects on the impacted communities and adverse longer-term consequences for economic growth. For this reason, the development of an efficient approach for urban seismic risk assessment becomes essential. An original approach is proposed, based on performance concepts and multidisciplinary perspectives. The procedure is applied for validation to the city center of Concordia Sulla Secchia (Italy), damaged by the 2012 Pianura Padana Earthquake (PPE), comparing predicted damage scenarios with the actual post-seismic survey data.
In this paper, the reconstruction process of a town affected by the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquake is analysed using information published on the town journal. Relevant aspects are highlighted, and the housing recovery is compared with that of a nearby city. Then, a what-if scenario is considered, by proposing a set of seismic mitigation strategies. These strategies are applied to a small sub-system of the city and the variation of the buildings’ vulnerability and expected damage is evaluated using a recently introduced methodology for risk assessments at the urban scale. Finally, a cost–benefit analysis is performed to assess the effectiveness of the proposed strategies. The analysis highlights a significant reduction in the expected damage and socioeconomic impact, as well as an increase in the overall performance of the urban system.
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