Background Highly utilized risk scores for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) have guided clinical decision-making in pancreatoduodenectomy. However, none has been successfully developed for distal pancreatectomy. This study aimed to develop and validate a new fistula risk score for distal pancreatectomy. Methods Patients undergoing distal pancreatectomy at Helsinki University Hospital, Finland from 2013 to 2021, and at Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, from 2010 to 2020, were included retrospectively. The outcome was CR-POPF, according to the 2016 International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery definition. Preoperative clinical demographics and radiological parameters such as pancreatic thickness and duct diameter were measured. A logistic regression model was developed, internally validated with bootstrapping, and the performance assessed in an external validation cohort. Results Of 668 patients from Helsinki (266) and Stockholm (402), 173 (25.9 per cent) developed CR-POPF. The final model consisted of three variables assessed before surgery: transection site (neck versus body/tail), pancreatic thickness at transection site, and diabetes. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.904 (95 per cent c.i. 0.855 to 0.949) after internal validation, and 0.798 (0.748 to 0.848) after external validation. The calibration slope and intercept on external validation were 0.719 and 0.192 respectively. Four risk groups were defined in the validation cohort for clinical applicability: low (below 5 per cent), moderate (at least 5 but below 30 per cent), high (at least 30 but below 75 per cent), and extreme (75 per cent or more). The incidences in these groups were 8.7 per cent (11 of 126), 22.0 per cent (36 of 164), 63 per cent (57 of 91), and 81 per cent (17 of 21) respectively. Conclusion The DISPAIR score after distal pancreatectomy may guide decision-making and allow a risk-adjusted outcome comparison for CR-POPF.
Työn nimi -Arbetets titel -TitleFirst day plasma amylase detects patients at risk for complications after simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation Ensimmäisen leikkauksenjälkeisen päivän plasman amylaasipitoisuus ennustaa potilaan komplikaatioriskiä samanaikaisen haima-ja munuaissiirron jälkeen
Background Recent studies have suggested postoperative acute pancreatitis (POAP) as a serious complication after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and have speculated on its possible role in the pathogenesis of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). This study aimed to assess the impact of POAP on post-PD outcomes and fistula risk score (FRS) performance in predicting POAP. Methods All PDs at Helsinki University Hospital between 2013 and 2020 were analysed. POAP was defined as a plasma amylase activity greater than the normal upper limit on postoperative day (POD) 1 and stratified as clinically relevant (CR)-POAP once C-reactive protein (CRP) reached or exceeded 180 mg/l, and non-CR-POAP once CRP was less than 180 mg/l on POD 2. The Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) was used to assess total postoperative morbidity. Different FRSs were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results Of the 508 patients included, POAP occurred in 202 (39.8 per cent) patients, of whom 91 (17.9 per cent) had CR-POAP. The incidence of CR-POPF was 12.6 per cent (64 patients). Patients with non-CR-POAP had a similar morbidity to patients with no POAP (median CCI score 24.2 versus 22.6; P = 0.142), while CCI score was significantly higher (37.2) in patients with CR-POAP (P < 0.001). CR-POAP was associated with increased rates of CR-POPF, delayed gastric emptying, haemorrhage, and bile leak, while non-CR-POAP was associated only with CR-POPF. Ninety-day mortality was 1.6 per cent, 0.9 per cent, and 3.3 per cent in patients with no-POAP, non-CR-POAP, and CR-POAP, respectively. Updated alternative FRS showed the best performance in predicting CR-POAP (area under the curve 0.834). Conclusion CR-POAP was associated with a higher CCI score, suggesting CR-POAP as a distinct entity from non-CR-POAP. FRSs can be used to assess the risk of CR-POAP.
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