Background Few surgical studies have provided adjusted comparative postoperative outcome data among contemporary patients with and without COVID-19 infection and patients treated before the pandemic. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of performing emergency surgery in patients with concomitant COVID-19 infection. Methods Patients who underwent emergency general and gastrointestinal surgery from March to June 2020, and from March to June 2019 in 25 Spanish hospitals were included in a retrospective study (COVID-CIR). The main outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included postoperative complications and failure to rescue (mortality among patients who developed complications). Propensity score-matched comparisons were performed between patients who were positive and those who were negative for COVID-19; and between COVID-19-negative cohorts before and during the pandemic. Results Some 5307 patients were included in the study (183 COVID-19-positive and 2132 COVID-19-negative during pandemic; 2992 treated before pandemic). During the pandemic, patients with COVID-19 infection had greater 30-day mortality than those without (12.6 versus 4.6 per cent), but this difference was not statistically significant after propensity score matching (odds ratio (OR) 1.58, 95 per cent c.i. 0.88 to 2.74). Those positive for COVID-19 had more complications (41.5 versus 23.9 per cent; OR 1.61, 1.11 to 2.33) and a higher likelihood of failure to rescue (30.3 versus 19.3 per cent; OR 1.10, 0.57 to 2.12). Patients who were negative for COVID-19 during the pandemic had similar rates of 30-day mortality (4.6 versus 3.2 per cent; OR 1.35, 0.98 to 1.86) and complications (23.9 versus 25.2 per cent; OR 0.89, 0.77 to 1.02), but a greater likelihood of failure to rescue (19.3 versus 12.9 per cent; OR 1.56, 95 per cent 1.10 to 2.19) than prepandemic controls. Conclusion Patients with COVID-19 infection undergoing emergency general and gastrointestinal surgery had worse postoperative outcomes than contemporary patients without COVID-19. COVID-19-negative patients operated on during the COVID-19 pandemic had a likelihood of greater failure-to-rescue than prepandemic controls.
Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of 90-day mortality (90DM) using machine learning in a large multicenter cohort of patients undergoing gastric cancer resection with curative intent. Background: The 90DM rate after gastrectomy for cancer is a quality of care indicator in surgical oncology. There is a lack of well-validated instruments for personalized prognosis of gastric cancer. Methods: Consecutive patients with gastric adenocarcinoma who underwent potentially curative gastrectomy between 2014 and 2021 registered in the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer Registry database were included. The 90DM for all causes was the study outcome. Preoperative clinical characteristics were tested in four 90DM predictive models: Cross Validated Elastic regularized logistic regression method (cv-Enet), boosting linear regression (glmboost), random forest, and an ensemble model. Performance was evaluated using the area under the curve by 10-fold cross-validation. Results: A total of 3182 and 260 patients from 39 institutions in 6 regions were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The 90DM rate was 5.6% and 6.2%, respectively. The random forest model showed the best discrimination capacity with a validated area under the curve of 0.844 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.841-0.848] as compared with cv-Enet (0.796, 95% CI: 0.784-0.808), glmboost (0.797, 95% CI: 0.785-0.809), and ensemble model (0.847, 95% CI: 0.836-0.858) in the development cohort. Similar discriminative capacity was observed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: A robust clinical model for predicting the risk of 90DM after surgery of gastric cancer was developed. Its use may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions.
Background COVID-19 infection is associated with a higher mortality rate in surgical patients, but surgical risk scores have not been validated in the emergency setting. We aimed to study the capacity for postoperative mortality prediction of the P-POSSUM score in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery. Material and methods Consecutive patients undergoing emergency general and digestive surgery from March to June 2020, and from March to June 2019 in 25 Spanish hospitals were included in a retrospective cohort study. Main outcome: 30-day mortality. P-POSSUM discrimination was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves; calibration was assessed by linear regression slope (β estimator); and sensitivity and specificity were expressed as percentage and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results 4988 patients were included: 177 COVID-19-positive; 2011 intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative; and 2800 pre-pandemic. COVID-19-positive patients were older, with higher surgical risk, more advanced pathologies, and higher P-POSSUM values (1.79% vs. 1.09%, p < 0.001, in both the COVID-19-negative and control cohort). 30-day mortality in the COVID-19-positive, intra-pandemic COVID-19-negative and pre-pandemic cohorts were: 12.9%, 4.6%, and 3.2%. The P-POSSUM predictive values in the three cohorts were, respectively: AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.95), 0.89 (95% CI 0.87–0.92), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88–0.93); β value 0.97 (95% CI 0.74–1.2), 0.99 (95% CI 0.82–1.16), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.82); sensitivity 83% (95% CI 61–95), 91% (95% CI 84–96), and 89% (95% CI 80–94); and specificity 81% (95% CI 74–87), 76% (95% CI 74–78), and 80% (95% CI 79–82). Conclusion The P-POSSUM score showed a good predictive capacity for postoperative mortality in COVID-19-positive patients submitted to emergency general and digestive surgery. Highlights
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