Hydrographic measurements from ships, autonomous profiling floats, and instrumented seals over the period 1986–2016 are used to examine the temporal variability in open-ocean convection in the Greenland Sea during winter. This process replenishes the deep ocean with oxygen and is central to maintaining its thermohaline properties. The deepest and densest mixed layers in the Greenland Sea were located within its cyclonic gyre and exhibited large interannual variability. Beginning in winter 1994, a transition to deeper (>500 m) mixed layers took place. This resulted in the formation of a new, less dense class of intermediate water that has since become the main product of convection in the Greenland Sea. In the preceding winters, convection was limited to <300-m depth, despite strong atmospheric forcing. Sensitivity studies, performed with a one-dimensional mixed layer model, suggest that the deeper convection was primarily the result of reduced water-column stability. While anomalously fresh conditions that increased the stability of the upper part of the water column had previously inhibited convection, the transition to deeper mixed layers was associated with increased near-surface salinities. Our analysis further suggests that the volume of the new class of intermediate water has expanded in line with generally increased depths of convection over the past 10–15 years. The mean export of this water mass from the Greenland Sea gyre from 1994 to present was estimated to be 0.9 ± 0.7 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), although rates in excess of 1.5 Sv occurred in summers following winters with deep convection.

The Greenland Sea gyre is one of the few areas where the water column is ventilated through open ocean convection. This process brings both anthropogenic carbon and oxygen from the atmosphere and surface ocean into the deep ocean, and also makes the Greenland Sea gyre interesting in a global perspective. In this study, a combination of ship-and float-based observations during the period 1986-2016 are analysed. Previous studies have shown warming and salinification of the upper 2000 m until 2011. The extended data record used here shows that this is continuing until 2016. In addition, oxygen concentrations are increasing over the entire period. The changes in temperature, salinity, and especially oxygen have been more pronounced since the turn of the century. This period has also been characterised by deeper wintertime mixed-layer depths, linking the warming, salinification and oxygenation to strengthened ventilation in the Greenland Sea gyre after 2000. The results also demonstrate that the strengthened ventilation can be tied to advection of warmer and more saline surface water from the North Atlantic through the Faroe-Shetland Channel. This advection has led to more saline surface waters in the Greenland Sea gyre, which is contributing to the deeper wintertime mixed layers.

Overflow water from the Nordic Seas comprises the deepest limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yet questions remain as to where it is ventilated and how it reaches the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. Here we use historical hydrographic data from 2005-2015, together with satellite altimeter data, to elucidate the source regions of the Denmark Strait and Faroe Bank Channel overflows and the pathways feeding these respective sills. A recently-developed metric is used to calculate how similar two water parcels are, based on potential density and potential spicity. This reveals that the interior of the Greenland Sea gyre is the primary wintertime source of the densest portion of both overflows. After subducting, the water progresses southward along several ridge systems towards the Greenland-Scotland Ridge. Kinematic evidence supports the inferred pathways. Extending the calculation back to the 1980s reveals that the ventilation occurred previously along the periphery of the Greenland Sea gyre.

The Iceland Greenland Seas Project (IGP) is a coordinated atmosphere–ocean research program investigating climate processes in the source region of the densest waters of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. During February and March 2018, a field campaign was executed over the Iceland and southern Greenland Seas that utilized a range of observing platforms to investigate critical processes in the region, including a research vessel, a research aircraft, moorings, sea gliders, floats, and a meteorological buoy. A remarkable feature of the field campaign was the highly coordinated deployment of the observing platforms, whereby the research vessel and aircraft tracks were planned in concert to allow simultaneous sampling of the atmosphere, the ocean, and their interactions. This joint planning was supported by tailor-made convection-permitting weather forecasts and novel diagnostics from an ensemble prediction system. The scientific aims of the IGP are to characterize the atmospheric forcing and the ocean response of coupled processes; in particular, cold-air outbreaks in the vicinity of the marginal ice zone and their triggering of oceanic heat loss, and the role of freshwater in the generation of dense water masses. The campaign observed the life cycle of a long-lasting cold-air outbreak over the Iceland Sea and the development of a cold-air outbreak over the Greenland Sea. Repeated profiling revealed the immediate impact on the ocean, while a comprehensive hydrographic survey provided a rare picture of these subpolar seas in winter. A joint atmosphere–ocean approach is also being used in the analysis phase, with coupled observational analysis and coordinated numerical modeling activities underway.

The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social−ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but also how knowledge from these regions contributes to an understanding of how to obtain a sustainable ocean. Our collective experience may be summarized in three points: 1) In the absence of long-term observations, decision-making is subject to high risk arising from natural variability; 2) in the absence of established scientific organizations, advice to stakeholders often relies on a few advisors, making them prone to biased perceptions; and 3) in the absence of trust between policy makers and the science community, attuning to a changing ocean will be subject to arbitrary decision-making with unforeseen and negative ramifications. Underpinning these observations, we show that collaboration across scientific disciplines and stakeholders and between nations is a necessary condition for appropriate actions.

Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. We detail and review the northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow, Arctic Ocean heat transport, and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900 in relation to sea ice cover. Our synthesis is largely based on a sea ice‐ocean model forced by a reanalysis atmosphere (1900–2018) corroborated by a comprehensive hydrographic database (1950–), AW inflow observations (1996–), and other long‐term time series of sea ice extent (1900–), glacier retreat (1984–), and Barents Sea hydrography (1900–). The Arctic Ocean, including the Nordic and Barents Seas, has warmed since the 1970s. This warming is congruent with increased ocean heat transport and sea ice loss and has contributed to the retreat of marine‐terminating glaciers on Greenland. Heat loss to the atmosphere is largest in the Nordic Seas (60% of total) with large variability linked to the frequency of Cold Air Outbreaks and cyclones in the region, but there is no long‐term statistically significant trend. Heat loss from the Barents Sea (∼30%) and Arctic seas farther north (∼10%) is overall smaller, but exhibit large positive trends. The AW inflow, total heat loss to the atmosphere, and dense outflow have all increased since 1900. These are consistently related through theoretical scaling, but the AW inflow increase is also wind‐driven. The Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ∼30% over the last century—consistent with Arctic sea ice loss allowing stronger air‐sea interaction and is ∼8% of the global uptake.

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While a rapid sea-ice retreat in the Arctic has become ubiquitous, the potential weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to global warming is still under debate. As deep mixing occurs in the open-ocean close to the sea-ice edge, the strength and vertical extent of the AMOC is likely to respond to ongoing and future sea-ice retreat. Here, we investigate the link between changes in Arctic sea-ice cover and AMOC strength in a long simulation with the EC-Earth-PISM climate model under the emission scenario RCP8.5. The extended duration of the experiment (years 1850-2300) captures the disappearance of summer sea ice in 2060 and the removal of winter sea ice in 2165. By introducing a new metric, the Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation (ArMOC), we document changes beyond the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and into the central Arctic. We find an ArMOC strengthening as the areas of deep mixing move north, following the retreating winter sea-ice edge into the Nansen Basin. At the same time, mixing in the Labrador and Greenland Seas reduces and the AMOC weakens. As the winter sea-ice edge retreats further into the regions with high surface freshwater content in the central Arctic Basin, the mixing becomes shallower and the ArMOC weakens. Our results suggest that the location of deep-water formation plays a decisive role in the structure and strength of the ArMOC; however, the intermittent strengthening of the ArMOC and convection north of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge cannot compensate for the progressive weakening of the AMOC.