The interference of climate circulation and continuous rising of surface temperature every year has caused the atmosphere composition change which gives serious impact to water resource management. Pahang is among of the affected states by El Nino that hit Malaysia in recent years which led to water depletion at several water plants. Based on the current situation, this study focuses on 1) simulate the average rain pattern using statistical downscaling; 2) identify the severity index and dry duration occurrence in the catchment area. Predicting potential changes in the climate events is important to evaluate the level of climate change in the critical region. Therefore, the integration of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) have been conducted to study the potential occurrence of the dry period due to climate change for year 2020s and year 2050s. The results reveal that the dry condition is high during the mid-year. The lowest SPI value is estimated to reach -2.2 which can be classified as extreme. The potential dry period is expected to increase 2.5% and 3.3% in 2020 and 2050, respectively.
Uncertainty of the climates nowadays bring the crucial calamities problems especially at unexpected areas and in anytime. Thus, the projection of climate variability becomes significant information especially in the designing
Frequent extreme drought especially in urban area is majorly connected with the changes of the global climate and drastic releases of greenhouse emissions in the earth system. It becomes significant in identifying how frequent the potential drought event in the long term and how big its impact to the existence water sources. Due to this concern, the integrated statistical model has been used to estimate the potential extreme drought in Pahang state, Malaysia. The Representative Concentration Pathways in three radiation levels known as RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 provided by IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) were implemented to produce the plausible future weather scenarios in the different radiation levels. The results revealed the climate changes could alter the seasonal trend and intensity with small rises in average 7%/year (rainfall) and 0.2 °C/decade (temperature). Although the rainfall was expecting to increase however almost 42% of Pahang state is expected to receive lower rainfall intensity than the historical annual rainfall. Estimated the drought events potentially to occur in 20 % from upcoming 80 years with every station has high probability to drought at least twice times. For the RCPs performances, the RCP4.5 potentially to produce more frequent drought compared to other RCPs.
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