The COVID-19 pandemic and public health "lockdown" responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non-COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non-COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children's health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.

BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) partially corrects immune dysfunction associated with HIV infection. The levels of T-cell immune activation and exhaustion after long-term, suppressive ART and their correlation with CD4 T-cell count reconstitution among ART-treated patients in African cohorts have not been extensively evaluated.MethodsT-cell activation (CD38+HLA-DR+) and immune exhaustion (PD-1+) were measured in a prospective cohort of patients initiated on ART; 128 patient samples were evaluated and subcategorized by CD4 reconstitution after long-term suppressive treatment: Suboptimal [median CD4 count increase 129 (-43-199) cells/μl], N = 34 ], optimal [282 (200-415) cells/μl, N = 64] and super-optimal [528 (416-878) cells/μl, N = 30].ResultsBoth CD4+ and CD8 T-cell activation was significantly higher among suboptimal CD4 T-cell responders compared to super-optimal responders. In a multivariate model, CD4+CD38+HLADR+ T-cells were associated with suboptimal CD4 reconstitution [AOR, 5.7 (95% CI, 1.4-23, P = 0.014)]. T-cell exhaustion (CD4+PD1+ and CD8+PD1+) was higher among suboptimal relative to optimal (P < 0.001) and super-optimal responders (P < 0.001). T-cell exhaustion was significantly associated with suboptimal responders [AOR, 1.5 (95%CI, 1.1-2.1), P = 0.022].ConclusionT-cell activation and exhaustion persist among HIV-infected patients despite long-term, sustained HIV-RNA viral suppression. These immune abnormalities were associated with suboptimal CD4 reconstitution and their regulation may modify immune recovery among suboptimal responders to ART.

We show a significant early mortality in our ART cohort in resource-limited settings that is driven by advanced human immunodeficiency virus disease and characterized by low CD4 cell counts. In our experience, the contribution of IRIS to this observed early mortality is limited.