Background Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease may lead to interventions that impact the epidemic. Methods Healthy, M. tuberculosis infected South African adolescents were followed for 2 years; blood was collected every 6 months. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA-Sequencing data by comparing participants who ultimately developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. The latter participants were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Findings Of 6,363 adolescents screened, 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% confidence interval, 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA-Seq and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6–64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7–86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified persons at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union and the South African Medical Research Council (detail at end of text).

Significant CM-associated mortality persists, despite the administration of amphotericin B and HIV therapy, because of the high mortality rate before receipt of HAART and because of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome-related complications after HAART initiation. Approaches to increase acceptance of therapeutic lumbar punctures are needed.

Tools to reliably measure Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) exposure in individuals and communities are needed to guide and evaluate malaria control interventions. Serologic assays can potentially produce precise exposure estimates at low cost; however, current approaches based on responses to a few characterized antigens are not designed to estimate exposure in individuals. Pf-specific antibody responses differ by antigen, suggesting that selection of antigens with defined kinetic profiles will improve estimates of Pf exposure. To identify novel serologic biomarkers of malaria exposure, we evaluated responses to 856 Pf antigens by protein microarray in 186 Ugandan children, for whom detailed Pf exposure data were available. Using data-adaptive statistical methods, we identified combinations of antibody responses that maximized information on an individual's recent exposure. Responses to three novel Pf antigens accurately classified whether an individual had been infected within the last 30, 90, or 365 d (cross-validated area under the curve = 0.86-0.93), whereas responses to six antigens accurately estimated an individual's malaria incidence in the prior year. Crossvalidated incidence predictions for individuals in different communities provided accurate stratification of exposure between populations and suggest that precise estimates of community exposure can be obtained from sampling a small subset of that community. In addition, serologic incidence predictions from cross-sectional samples characterized heterogeneity within a community similarly to 1 y of continuous passive surveillance. Development of simple ELISAbased assays derived from the successful selection strategy outlined here offers the potential to generate rich epidemiologic surveillance data that will be widely accessible to malaria control programs.any countries have extensive programs to reduce the burden of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), the parasite responsible for most malaria morbidity and mortality (1). Effectively using limited resources for malaria control or elimination and evaluating interventions require accurate measurements of the risk of being infected with Pf (2-15). To reflect the rate at which individuals are infected with Pf in a useful way, metrics used to estimate exposure in a community need to account for dynamic changes over space and time, especially in response to control interventions (16)(17)(18).A variety of metrics can be used to estimate Pf exposure, but tools that are more precise and low cost are needed for population surveillance. Existing metrics have varying intrinsic levels of precision and accuracy and are subject to a variety of extrinsic factors, such as cost, time, and availability of trained personnel (19). For example, entomological measurements provide information on mosquito to human transmission for a community but are expensive, require specially trained staff, and lack standardized procedures, all of which reduce precision and/or make interpretation difficult (19)(20)(21)(22). Parasite prevalence can be meas...

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a leading cause of mortality worldwide and establishes a long-lived latent infection in a substantial proportion of the human population. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that some individuals are resistant to latent M. tuberculosis infection despite long-term and intense exposure, and we term these individuals 'resisters'. In this Review, we discuss the epidemiological and genetic data that support the existence of resisters and propose criteria to optimally define and characterize the resister phenotype. We review recent insights into the immune mechanisms of M. tuberculosis clearance, including responses mediated by macrophages, T cells and B cells. Understanding the cellular mechanisms that underlie resistance to M. tuberculosis infection may reveal immune correlates of protection that could be utilized for improved diagnostics, vaccine development and novel host-directed therapeutic strategies.

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease.Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB.Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results:A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC/TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-a variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events.Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.