The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

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A multimodel system for the Mediterranean region improves simulation of physical processes involved in the complex, intricate interaction of land, air, and sea.

Within the CIRCE project "Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment", an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950-2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021-2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961-1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021-2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961-1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover

Three‐yearlong time series of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) observations at a single station in Espartel Sill (Strait of Gibraltar) were used to compute an outflow of Q2 = −0.82 Sv through the main channel. The cross‐strait structure of the velocity field or the outflow through a secondary channel north of the submarine ridge of Majuan in Espartel section is not captured by observations so that an improved version of a numerical model (CEPOM) has been used to fill the observational gap. Previously, the model performance has been checked against historical data sets by comparing harmonic constants of the main diurnal and semidiurnal constituents from observed and modeled data at different sites of the strait. Considering the great complexity of tidal dynamics in the area, the comparison is quite satisfactory and validates the model to infer the exchange at longer timescales. Using a “climatological” April in the simulation, extracting a “single station” from the model at the same position as the monitoring station and processing the data similarly, the model gives an outflow through the southern channel 13% higher than observations. The inclusion of the cross‐strait structure of velocity reduces the computed outflow through the southern channel, whereas the contribution of the northern channel brings the total outflow close to that computed using a single station (5% smaller). If the same correction is applied to observations, the total outflow would reduce to Q2 = −0.78 Sv. The paper also assesses the importance of eddy fluxes to the total outflow, their contribution being negligible (≤5%).

The hydraulic state of the exchange circulation through the Strait of Gibraltar is defined using a recently developed critical condition that accounts for cross-channel variations in layer thickness and velocity, applied to the output of a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model simulating the tidal exchange. The numerical model uses a coastal-following curvilinear orthogonal grid, which includes, in addition to the Strait of Gibraltar, the Gulf of Cadiz and the Alboran Sea. The model is forced at the open boundaries through the specification of the surface tidal elevation that is characterized by the two principal semidiurnal and two diurnal harmonics: M 2 , S 2 , O 1 , and K 1 . The simulation covers an entire tropical month.The hydraulic analysis is carried out approximating the continuous vertical stratification first as a two-layer system and then as a three-layer system. In the latter, the transition zone, generated by entrainment and mixing between the Atlantic and Mediterranean flows, is considered as an active layer in the hydraulic model. As result of these vertical approximations, two different hydraulic states have been found; however, the simulated behavior of the flow only supports the hydraulic state predicted by the three-layer case. Thus, analyzing the results obtained by means of the three-layer hydraulic model, the authors have found that the flow in the strait reaches maximal exchange about 76% of the tropical monthlong period.

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