Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations

Carillo, Adriana; Sannino, Gianmaria; Artale, V.; Ruti, Paolo; Calmanti, Sandro; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1369-1

Cited by 49 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The averaged SST and SSS have also been improved, especially in the HIS-F simulation. Compared to the historical simulation E20C in Carillo et al (2012), our both simulations HIS and HIS-F display more consistent heat and salt content values, considering MEDATLAS-II as reference. Concerning the surface circulation, HIS and HIS-F are quite consistent with the circulation pattern proposed by Millot and TaupierLetage (2005), except for the northward branch from the Alboran Sea to the Balearic Islands displayed in HIS-F.…”

Section: Model Evaluation Synthesismentioning

confidence: 60%

“…The temperature gradient is thus weaker than in the observations. Despite the mentioned discrepancies, the simulation of the heat and salt contents has been well improved since the study by Somot et al (2006) or Carillo et al (2012), especially for deep layers. Table 3 Surface heat loss (SHL), heat content trend (∆HC) and net heat and salt transport at the Gibraltar Strait (GHT and GST) averaged over the Mediterranean basin…”

Section: Heat Salt and Density Contentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tsimplis et al (2008) have discussed the different contributors to Mediterranean steric sea level rise based on a single ocean-atmosphere regional model. Later on, Carillo et al (2012) analysed an ensemble of models and found a large spread on the steric component of the Mediterranean sea level rise which depends on Atlantic boundary conditions. A review of the studies dealing with Mediterranean climate projections is presented in Planton et al (2012).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

et al. 2015

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to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070-2099 period compared to , the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing.

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Section: Model Evaluation Synthesismentioning

confidence: 60%

Section: Heat Salt and Density Contentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

et al. 2015

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“…We have to keep in mind that most of the published RCSMs were forced by the ERA-40 reanalysis (Artale et al, 2010;Herrmann et al, 2011;Carillo et al, 2012;L'He´ve´der et al, 2013) or by GCMs Krzic et al, 2011;Carillo et al, 2012;Dell'Aquila et al, 2012;Dubois et al, 2012;Rojas et al, 2013;Sanna et al, 2013) Dubois et al (2012), Gualdi et al (2013a)]. Note that reanalysis-driven simulations are expected to perform better than GCM-driven simulations, as their lateral boundary conditions can be considered more realistic.…”

Section: Comparison Of Cnrm-rcsm4 With the Stateof-the-art Mediterranmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The previous RCSMs, as described in the literature, had more constraints than CNRM-RCSM4. The PROTHEUS system (Artale et al, 2010;Carillo et al, 2012;Dell'Aquila et al, 2012) kept the Levitus climatology in the Atlantic part of the model. This is a weak point in studying the system's sensitivity to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO, Marullo et al (2011)], as underlined by Mariotti and Dell'Aquila (2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fully coupled Mediterranean regional climate system model: design and evaluation of the ocean component for the 1980–2012 period

Sevault¹,

Somot²,

Alias³

et al. 2014

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

123

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A B S T R A C TA fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) dedicated to the Mediterranean region is described and evaluated using a multidecadal hindcast simulation (1980Á2012) driven by global atmosphere and ocean reanalysis. CNRM-RCSM4 includes the regional representation of the atmosphere (ALADIN-Climate model), land surface (ISBA model), rivers (TRIP model) and the ocean (NEMOMED8 model), with a daily coupling by the OASIS coupler. This model aims to reproduce the regional climate system with as few constraints as possible: there is no surface salinity, temperature relaxation, or flux correction; the Black Sea budget is parameterised and river runoffs (except for the Nile) are fully coupled. The atmospheric component of CNRM-RCSM4 is evaluated in a companion paper; here, we focus on the airÁsea fluxes, river discharges, surface ocean characteristics, deep water formation phenomena and the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Long-term stability, mean seasonal cycle, interannual variability and decadal trends are evaluated using basin-scale climatologies and in-situ measurements when available. We demonstrate that the simulation shows overall good behaviour in agreement with state-of-the-art Mediterranean RCSMs. An overestimation of the shortwave radiation and latent heat loss as well as a cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) bias and a slight trend in the bottom layers are the primary current deficiencies. Further, CNRM-RCSM4 shows high skill in reproducing the interannual to decadal variability for airÁsea fluxes, river runoffs, sea surface temperature and salinity as well as open-sea deep convection, including a realistic simulation of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient. We conclude that CNRM-RCSM4 is a mature modelling tool allowing the climate variability of the Mediterranean regional climate system to be studied and understood. It is used in hindcast and scenario modes in the HyMeX and Med-CORDEX programs.

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Northern Adriatic meteorological tsunamis: Assessment of their potential through ocean modeling experiments

2015

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Potential for generation of meteotsunami waves via open ocean resonance has been documented for the shallow northern Adriatic, based on a set of barotropic numerical modeling experiments. Model simulations were forced by a bell‐shaped traveling atmospheric (air pressure, wind) disturbance, with shape and propagation parameters chosen in accordance with measurements done during several observed northern Adriatic meteotsunamis. Air pressure disturbances were found to generate much larger meteotsunami waves than wind disturbances, with wind disturbances having a limited influence in the very coastal and shallow areas only. Numerical simulations reveal that the most important factor for generation of large meteotsunami waves is matching between the speed of the atmospheric disturbance and the speed of long‐ocean waves. Already a small (∼10%) deviation from resonant conditions stops the wave growth and dramatically decreases height of predicted waves. A train of atmospheric disturbances can significantly increase maximum wave heights at selected locations at which multiple reflections and superimpositions of meteotsunami waves occur. Sensitivity of model simulations to resonant conditions and limited cross‐propagation width of atmospheric disturbance explain the localization of destructive meteotsunami waves in a limited area during destructive historic events. Mapping of maximum predicted wave heights indicates places with large meteotsunami hazard potential, matching the locations where real events were observed, and may be a useful tool for assessing vulnerability and risks in coastal areas during extreme sea level events.

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Steric sea level rise over the Mediterranean Sea: present climate and scenario simulations

Cited by 49 publications

References 35 publications

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

A fully coupled Mediterranean regional climate system model: design and evaluation of the ocean component for the 1980–2012 period

Northern Adriatic meteorological tsunamis: Assessment of their potential through ocean modeling experiments

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