For countries aiming for malaria elimination, travel of infected individuals between endemic areas undermines local interventions. Quantifying parasite importation has therefore become a priority for national control programs. We analyzed epidemiological surveillance data, travel surveys, parasite genetic data, and anonymized mobile phone data to measure the spatial spread of malaria parasites in southeast Bangladesh. We developed a genetic mixing index to estimate the likelihood of samples being local or imported from parasite genetic data and inferred the direction and intensity of parasite flow between locations using an epidemiological model integrating the travel survey and mobile phone calling data. Our approach indicates that, contrary to dogma, frequent mixing occurs in low transmission regions in the southwest, and elimination will require interventions in addition to reducing imported infections from forested regions. Unlike risk maps generated from clinical case counts alone, therefore, our approach distinguishes areas of frequent importation as well as high transmission.
The escalating dengue situation in Bangladesh has been emerging as a serious public health problem in terms of morbidity and mortality. Results of analysis of 40,476 cases of Bangladesh occurring during 2000–2017 indicated that 49.73% of the dengue cases occurred during the monsoon season (May–August) and 49.22% during the post-monsoon season (September–December). However, data also showed that, since 2014, these trends have been changing, and dengue cases have been reported during the pre-monsoon season. During 2015–2017, in the pre-monsoon season, the dengue cases were reported to be more than seven times higher compared to the previous 14 years. The findings closely correlate with those of the pre-monsoon Aedes vector survey which revealed the presence of high density of larva and pupa of the dengue vectors in the environment all the year round. In our study, climate changes, such as average rainfall, humidity, and temperature, after 2014, and rapid unplanned urbanization were the strong predictors of an imbalance in the existing ecology that has led to increase in dengue cases in 2016 and the emergence of the chikungunya virus for the first time in Bangladesh in 2017. Although 2018 dengue data are relevant but not included in this study due to study time frame, it is interesting to report an increase in the number of dengue cases in pre (2016) and post (2018, which is highest within 18 years) chikungunya outbreak, which favors the study hypothesis. Despite the efforts to control dengue, based primarily on the vector control and case management, the burden and costs of the disease and similar vector-borne diseases will continue to grow in future in our country. Developing a cost-effective vaccine against all the 4 strains of dengue remains a challenge. The CDC, in collaboration with other research organizations, may come forward to initiate and coordinate a large-scale randomized clinical trial of an effective dengue vaccine in Bangladesh.
Vaccinating dogs against rabies is an effective means of reducing human rabies. We subjected 1327 clinically diagnosed human rabies death and mass dog vaccination (MDV) data during 2006-2018 to quantify the impacts of MDV on human rabies incidence in Bangladesh and a subset of rabies death data (422) for clinico-epidemiological analysis. A positive and increasing trend of MDV (p = 0.01 and tau = 0.71) and a negative and declining trend (p < 0.001 and tau = −0.88) of human rabies cases (Correlation coefficient: −0.82) have been observed. Among 422 deaths, the majority (78%) of the victims sought treatment from traditional healers, and 12% received post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). The mean incubation period of rabies in cases with exposure sites on the head & neck (35 days) was shorter than the upper limb (mean = 64 days, p = 0.02) and lower limb (mean = 89 days, p < 0.01). MDV has been found to be effective for reducing human rabies cases in Bangladesh. Creating awareness among the animal bite victims to stop reliance on traditional healers rather seeking PEP, addressing the role of traditional healers through awareness education programme with respect to the treatment of dog bites, ensuring availability of PEP, and continuing to scale up MDV may help to prevent human rabies deaths.Rabies is a zoonotic viral disease responsible for the death of approximately 59,000 people worldwide with more than 3.7 million disability-adjusted life years lost annually 1 . Due to acute progressive encephalitis, rabies is almost always fatal once clinical signs appear. The disease occurs predominantly in impoverished communities, in both rural and urban areas, and has been recognized for over 4000 years 2,3 . Rabies is present across all continents, except Antarctica with more than 95% of human fatalities happening in the areas of Asia and Africa, and approximately 40% of cases in the population are aged below 15 years. Although all warm-blooded animals are susceptible to rabies, domestic dogs are the main cause of rabies virus transmission to humans in up to 99% of cases in rabies-endemic regions 4 . Most cases of rabies are caused by the bite of an infected dog. The effect of rabies virus (RABV) exposure depends on a number of factors, including the gravity of the wound, the anatomical site of the bite on the body, the viral quantity and variant (genotype) inoculated into the wound(s) and the timeliness of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) 3 . The clinical manifestation of human rabies can appear in any of two forms: the widely perceived furious (classical or encephalitic) form or the paralytic (or dumb) form 5,6 . Each case of rabies has
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