The prevalence of obesity among adults in Saudi Arabia increased from 22% in 1990-1993 to 36% in 2005, and future projections of the prevalence of adult obesity are needed by health policy-makers. In a secondary analysis of published data, a number of assumptions were applied to estimate the trends and projections in the age-and sex-specific prevalence of adult obesity in Saudi Arabia over the period 1992-2022. Five studies conducted between 1989 and 2005 were eligible for inclusion, using body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m 2 to define obesity. The overall prevalence of obesity was projected to increase from around 12% in 1992 to 41% by 2022 in men, and from 21% to 78% in women. Women had much higher projected prevalence than men, particularly in the age groups 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years. Effective national strategies are needed to reduce or halt the projected rise in obesity prevalence. Al-Ahssa Region, Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia (Correspondence to A.J. Al-Quwaidhi: aal-qwidi@moh. gov.sa General Directorate of Health Affairs at

AimsTo compare the estimates and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against other modelling estimates, such as those produced by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project.MethodsA discrete-state Markov model was developed and validated that integrates data on population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in adult Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (annually from 1992 to 2022). The model was validated by comparing the age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates against a national survey conducted in 2005.ResultsPrevalence estimates from this new Markov model were consistent with the 2005 national survey and very similar to the GBD study estimates. Prevalence in men and women in 2000 was estimated by the GBD model respectively at 17.5% and 17.7%, compared to 17.7% and 16.4% in this study. The IDF estimates of the total diabetes prevalence were considerably lower at 16.7% in 2011 and 20.8% in 2030, compared with 29.2% in 2011 and 44.1% in 2022 in this study.ConclusionIn contrast to other modelling studies, both the Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model and the GBD model directly incorporated the trends in obesity prevalence and/or body mass index (BMI) to inform T2DM prevalence estimates. It appears that such a direct incorporation of obesity trends in modelling studies results in higher estimates of the future prevalence of T2DM, at least in countries where obesity has been rapidly increasing.

Objectives: To estimate obesity prevalence among children and adolescents in Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia for the year 2016 and to determine the related preventable risk factors. Methods:This study was a cross-sectional study (using stratified random sampling representing different geographical areas of Al-Ahsa) through a self-administered questionnaire. It included 240 male students aged (7-15) years old from public primary and intermediate schools in Al-Ahsa governorate, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Anthropometric measurements of weight and height were taken for all the study participants. Body mass index (BMI) and its percentile was determined using Saudi won growth charts of the corresponding age and sex. Results:The overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 29.6% (10.8% overweight, 3.8% obese, and 15% extremely obese). The prevalence of overweight and obesity was significantly associated with early childhood obesity, parental obesity, mother's employment, family income, number of snacks and fast food consumption, physical inactivity, and time spent in watching television. Other factors (namely, eating during emotional stress, family gathering on meals, and regular eating times) were having independently significant association. Conclusion:There is an urgent need to spread awareness about obesity, and the prevention programs that involving schools and families are the key strategy for controlling the current epidemic of obesity.