Most of the integrated assessment modelling (IAM) literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse IAMs we project global energy CO 2 emissions trajectories based on near-term mitigation efforts, and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3°C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2°C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of IAM than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogenous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage (CCS) use compared to explicitly modelling policies. Ed Summ 2Mitigation pathways tend to focus on an end temperature target and calculate how to keep within these bounds. This work uses seven integrated assessment models to consider current mitigation efforts, and project likely temperature trajectories.

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2 Вектор e удельной карбоноемкости выпуска отраслей экономики России можно оценить на основе данных WIOD только до 2009 г. В 2010-2013 гг. он экстраполируется на основе соотношения общего энергопотребления и выпуска в российской экономике. Таблицы WIOD «затраты-выпуск» для России скорректированы и дополнены за счет собственных разработок ИНП РАН.