Malware variants are the major emerging threats that face cybersecurity due to the potential damage to computer systems. Many solutions have been proposed for detecting malware variants. However, accurate detection is challenging due to the constantly evolving nature of the malware variants that cause concept drift. Existing malware detection solutions assume that the mapping learned from historical malware features will be valid for new and future malware. The relationship between input features and the class label has been considered stationary, which doesn't hold for the ever-evolving nature of malware variants. Malware features change dynamically due to code obfuscations, mutations, and the modification made by malware authors to change the features' distribution and thus evade the detection rendering the detection model obsolete and ineffective. This study presents an Adaptive behavioral-based Incremental Batch Learning Malware Variants Detection model using concept drift detection and sequential deep learning (AIBL-MVD) to accommodate the new malware variants. Malware behavior were extracted using dynamic analysis by running the malware files in a sandbox environment and collecting their Application Programming Interface (API) traces. According to the malware first-time appearance, the malware samples were sorted to capture the malware variants' change characteristics. The base classifier was then trained based on a subset of historical malware samples using a sequential deep learning model. The new malware samples were mixed with a subset of old data and gradually introduced to the learning model in an adaptive batch size incremental learning manner to address the catastrophic forgetting dilemma of the incremental learning. The statistical process control technique has been used to detect the concept drift as indication for incrementally updating the model as well as reducing the frequency of model updates. Results from extensive experiments show that the proposed model is superior in terms of detection rate and the efficiency compared with the static model, periodic retraining approaches, and the fixed batch size incremental learning approach. The model maintains an average of 99.41% detection accuracy of new and variants malware with a low updating frequency of 1.35 times per month.
Nowadays, short-term traffic flow forecasting has gained increasing attention from researchers due to traffic congestion in many large and medium-sized cities that pose a serious threat to sustainable urban development. To this end, this research examines the forecasting performance of functional time series modeling to forecast traffic flow in the ultra-short term. An appealing feature of the functional approach is that unlike other methods, it provides information over the whole day, and thus, forecasts can be obtained for any time within a day. Within this approach, a Functional AutoRegressive (FAR) model is used to forecast the next-day traffic flow. For empirical analysis, the traffic flow data of Dublin airport link road, Ireland, collected at a fifteen-minute interval from 1 January 2016 to 30 April 2017, are used. The first twelve months are used for model estimation, while the remaining four months are for the one-day-ahead out-of-sample forecast. For comparison purposes, a widely used model, namely AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), is also used to obtain the forecasts. Finally, the models’ performances are compared based on different accuracy statistics. The study results suggested that the functional time series model outperforms the traditional time series models. As the proposed method can produce traffic flow forecasts for the entire next day with satisfactory results, it can be used in decision making by transportation policymakers and city planners.
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