A number of hypotheses have previously been developed concerning the rates of uptake and elimination of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish. These include the influence of potassium and other water chemical parameters on both uptake and elimination, and the effect of fish size on accumulation. In order to test these hypotheses, we have assembled a data set comprising more than 1,000 measurements of radiocaesium (137Cs) in predatory fish (perch, pike and brown trout) in nine European lakes during the years after Chernobyl. These data have been analysed using simple models for uptake and excretion of 137Cs in fish, showing that: 1. Fish-water concentration factors (CF) were inversely proportional to potassium [K+] concentration of the different lakes, in agreement with previous studies. 2. The uptake rate of 137Cs in fish was negatively correlated with lake [K+], but excretion rate was independent of [K+]. 3. Lower than expected CF values were found in one lake, Iso Valkjärvi, Finland. This is attributed to inhibition of the K+ (and therefore 137Cs) high affinity transport system in aquatic plants and fish by low pH and/or low Ca2+. 4. The inclusion of fish weight as a parameter in our dynamic model significantly improves the ability of the model to fit the observed measurements of 137Cs. 5. The model developed from the above hypotheses was able to fit the data from nine different lakes to within approximately a factor of 3 of the observed values.

Atmospheric nuclear weapons explosions and large-scale nuclear accidents may contaminate large areas of land with the long-lived radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr. The mobility and bioavailability of these radionuclides in the environment is dependent primarily on soil characteristics and changes significantly over time after fallout (1-4). Radioisotope concentrations in different rivers and at different times after fallout vary over 2-3 orders of magnitude. Many previous studies have concentrated on the interactions of radiocesium and radiostrontium with various environmental components, but there are currently no operative models fortheirtransport over large spatial areas. We collected time-series measurements of 90Sr and 137Cs in 25 major European and Asian rivers and (using digital data sets with global coverage) determined characteristics of each of the rivers' catchments. This work has established, for the first time, a quantitative link between riverine transport of these radioisotopes and catchment and soil characteristics at a global scale. A generalized predictive model accounting for time changes in river concentrations and variation in catchment characteristics is developed. This can be used to predict the long-term riverine transport of these radiologically important radionuclides following any large-scale nuclear incident in North America, Europe, or (European and Asian) Russia.

Radiocaesium concentration factors of Chernobyl-contaminated fish: a study of the influence of potassium and "blind" testing of a previously developed model.

Simplified dynamic models have been developed for predicting the concentrations of radiocesium, radiostrontium, and I in surface waters and freshwater fish following a large-scale radioactive fallout. The models are intended to give averaged estimates for radionuclides in water bodies and in fish for all times after a radioactive fallout event. The models are parameterized using empirical data collected for many lakes and rivers in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, UK, Finland, Italy, The Netherlands, and Germany. These measurements span a long time period after fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing and following the Chernobyl accident. The models thus developed were tested against independent measurements from the Kiev Reservoir and Chernobyl Cooling Pond (Ukraine) and the Sozh River (Belarus) after the Chernobyl accident, from Lake Uruskul (Russia), following the Kyshtym accident in 1957, and from Haweswater Reservoir (UK), following atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. The AQUASCOPE models (implemented in EXCEL spreadsheets) and model documentation are available free of charge from the corresponding author.

One of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 was a dramatic increase in incidence of thyroid cancer among those who were aged less than 18 years at the time of the accident. This increase has been directly linked in several analytic epidemiological studies to iodine-131 (131I) thyroid doses received from the accident. However, there remains limited understanding of factors that modify the 131I-related risk. Focusing on post-Chernobyl pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus, we reviewed evidence of the effects of radiation, thyroid screening, and iodine deficiency on regional differences in incidence rates of thyroid cancer. We also reviewed current evidence on content of nitrate in groundwater and thyroid cancer risk drawing attention to high levels of nitrates in open well water in several contaminated regions of Belarus, i.e. Gomel and Brest, related to the usage of nitrogen fertilizers. In this hypothesis generating study, based on ecological data and biological plausibility, we suggest that nitrate pollution may modify the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer contributing to regional differences in rates of pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus. Analytic epidemiological studies designed to evaluate joint effect of nitrate content in groundwater and radiation present a promising avenue of research and may provide useful insights into etiology of thyroid cancer.

The behaviour of Chernobyl-derived 137Cs in a hydrologically isolated bog system in the catchment of the Pripyat River, Belarus was investigated. Measurements were made of 137Cs activities in the solids and pore waters of the bog soils, as well as the variability in activity in water draining from the bog. It was found that the radiocaesium activity of the pore water, and hence the measured distribution coefficient, Kd, was dependent upon the pressure at which the water was removed from the soil. Measured values of Kd were of the order 10(2) l/kg at an extraction pressure of 0.8 MPa, approximately one order of magnitude lower than those measured in a similar system, Devoke Water, in the UK [1]. Results of comparative measurements suggested that this was a result of the different pore water extraction techniques used. The vertical migration of radiocaesium was modelled using a solution of the advection-diffusion equation. Using a mass balance approach, it was estimated that 137Cs was removed from the system at a rate of 0.3% of the catchment inventory per year, approximately 8 years after the Chernobyl accident. It was shown that both vertical migration and removal of 137Cs is best modelled using a Kd based on a measurement of pore water held at low pressure in the soil, approximately 10(3) l/kg. 137Cs activities in soil pore waters and in drainage waters were very strongly related to the aqueous potassium concentration, and both showed concentration minima in drainage water during the spring. It was shown that runoff coefficients of radiocaesium from peat bogs 8 years after the Chernobyl accident were approximately one order of magnitude greater than those from unsaturated soils of higher mineral content.

This study tests a whole-lake experiment to reduce the bioaccumulation of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish in lakes contaminated by the Chernobyl accident. In many lakes in the Chernobyl contaminated areas, radiocaesium activity concentrations in fish are still significantly higher (up to 100 times in some species) than acceptable limits for human consumption. Estimates of the long-term rate of decline of 137Cs in fish in these regions, in the absence of countermeasures, show that radioactivity in fish in some lakes may remain above acceptable consumption limits for a further 50-100 years from the present date. In February 1998 we applied 15 t of potassium chloride to Lake Svyatoe, Kostiukovichy. The addition of potassium chloride fertilizer to the lake resulted in a decrease in activity concentration of 137Cs to approximately 40% of pre-countermeasure values in a number of different fish species. In contrast to Lake Svyatoe, 137Cs activity concentrations in fish from four control lakes showed no systematic decrease over the study period. Simplified models for transfers of 137Cs in lakes successfully 'blind' predicted the changes in 137Cs in water and fish resulting from this major alteration of the potassium concentration of the lake. The experiment represents the first test of a predictive model for the dynamics of radiocaesium in response to a major perturbation in potassium (its major competitor ion) in a whole lake ecosystem.

Empirical relations between the (90)Sr concentration factor (CF) and the calcium concentration in freshwater aquatic systems have previously been determined in studies based on data obtained prior to the Chernobyl accident. The purpose of the present research is to review and compare these models, and to test them against a database of post-Chernobyl measurements from rivers and lakes in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Finland. It was found that two independently developed models, based on pre-Chernobyl empirical data, are in close agreement with each other, and with empirical data. Testing of both models against new data obtained after the Chernobyl accident confirms the models' predictive ability. An investigation of the influence of fish size on (90)Sr accumulation showed no significant relationship, though the data set was somewhat limited.