Successive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease 1,2. Projections of the endemic seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission are crucial to informed public health policy 3. Such projections are not only essential to well-timed interventions and the preparation of healthcare systems for synchronous surges with other respiratory viruses 4, but also to the elimination of seasonality as a confounder in the identification of surges that are occurring due to viral evolution, changes in host immunity, or other non-seasonal factors. However, the less than two-year duration of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and heterogeneous implementation of interventions have grievously complicated evaluations of its seasonality 5. Here we estimate the impending endemic seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 in global population centers via a novel phylogenetic ancestral and descendent states approach 6 that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating coronaviruses. Our results validate a major concern that endemic COVID-19 will typically surge coincident with other high-morbidity and -mortality respiratory virus infections such as influenza and RSV 7. In temperate locales in the Northern Hemisphere, we identify spatiotemporal surges of incidences that range from October through January in New York to January through March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of likely spatiotemporal surges of COVID-19 is fundamental to optimal timing of public health interventions that anticipate the impending endemicity of this disease and mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Evolutionary transitions in water column usage have played a major role in shaping ray-finned fish diversity. However, the extent to which vision-associated trait complexity and water column usage is coupled remains unclear. Here we investigate the relationship between depth niche, eye size, and the molecular basis of light detection across the Antarctic notothenioid adaptive radiation. Using a phylogenetic comparative framework, we integrate sequence analyses of opsin tuning sites with data on eye size and depth occupancy from over two decades of NOAA trawl-based surveys. We find a consistent signature of changes in tuning sites suggestive of shifts in their ability to detect lower wavelengths of light. These represent repeated instances of independent tuning site changes across the notothenioid phylogeny that are generally not associated with habitat depth or species eye size. We further reveal an acceleration in the rate of eye size diversification nearly 20 million years after the initial radiation that has manifested in high levels of eye size divergence among closely related taxa. Collectively, our results strongly support a decoupling of the diversification dynamics between opsin tuning sites, eye size and depth, providing a new perspective of the evolution of the visual system in this iconic adaptive radiation.
The effects of stocking rate, level of fodder conservation and grazing management of Polwarth x Corriedale wethers on the seasonal wool growth rate, liveweight and herbage on offer over a three year period have been examined by pattern analysis. The grazing management systems were continuous, deferred and rotational grazing. The herbage on offer in the autumn and spring of two years, the minimum liveweight in winter for each of three years, and monthly wool growth rates were analysed by regression. The grouping of treatments with similar patterns of seasonal fluctuations indicated some effects due to the treatments and these indications were supported by the regression analysis. Stocking rate was shown to have a major effect on the distribution and amount of feed on offer, especially in the continuous system. Differences between stocking rate in the herbage on offer were reduced by the rotational grazing system, and the deferred system increased the autumn supply of herbage. These general effects were also reflected in the seasonal patterns for wool growth and, to some extent, liveweight. The effect of fodder conservation on herbage availability showed two distinct and opposing responses one during the feeding and the other during the period when hay is conserved. Responses in herbage availability were apparent in late autumn, but by late winter any residual effect on liveweight was small. In the drought conditions of 1967 there was a substantial response in the minimum liveweight in winter to the conservation practice.
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