Projecting the seasonality of endemic COVID-19

Abstract

Successive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease 1,2. Projections of the endemic seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission are crucial to informed public health policy 3. Such projections are not only essential to well-timed interventions and the preparation of healthcare systems for synchronous surges with other respiratory viruses 4, but also to the elimination of seasonality as a confounder in the identification of surges that are occurring due to viral evolution, changes in host immunity, or other non-seasonal factors. However, the less than two-year duration of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and heterogeneous implementation of interventions have grievously complicated evaluations of its seasonality 5. Here we estimate the impending endemic seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 in global population centers via a novel phylogenetic ancestral and descendent states approach 6 that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating coronaviruses. Our results validate a major concern that endemic COVID-19 will typically surge coincident with other high-morbidity and -mortality respiratory virus infections such as influenza and RSV 7. In temperate locales in the Northern Hemisphere, we identify spatiotemporal surges of incidences that range from October through January in New York to January through March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of likely spatiotemporal surges of COVID-19 is fundamental to optimal timing of public health interventions that anticipate the impending endemicity of this disease and mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

The antiviral potential of the antiandrogen enzalutamide and the viral‐androgen signaling interplay in seasonal coronaviruses

“…2 This is evident from the lack of specific vaccines or drugs and the incomplete global understanding of their epidemiology, largely due to their exclusion from standard diagnostics. 2,41,42 Certain drugs originally developed for other viral infections, such as interferons, ribavirin, and mycophenolic acid, have demonstrated promising outcomes against HCoV in clinical trials. 43 In this study, our attention turned to enzalutamide, a nonsteroidal antiandrogen drug employed in the treatment of prostate cancer, 44 which we previously demonstrated to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection in lung cells.…”

Real-time Dissection and Forecast of Infection Dynamics during a Pandemic

“…Other frequently discussed factors, including mask policies and seasonality, are presumably still below the current statistical resolution of our method, defined by the sampling noise in the CX and R eff time series. Moreover, a larger impact of seasonal variation is expected in the endemic phase of SARS-CoV-2 [46].…”

“…where R true is assigned to the projected day of con- Moreover, a larger impact of seasonal variation is expected in the endemic phase of SARS-CoV-2 [46].…”

A global scale COVID-19 variants time-series analysis across 48 countries

“…Otherwise, a multiplicative model would be used ( 12 ). The cycle period was set at seven time steps, assuming a regular quarterly spatiotemporal fluctuation ( 13 ).…”