PEMODELAN SUMBER GEMPA DI WILAYAH SULAWESI UTARA SEBAGAI UPAYA MITIGASI BENCANA GEMPA BUMI 1) Guntur Pasau2) dan Adey Tanauma2); e-mail: pasaujunior@gmail.com1)Penelitian IPTEK dan Seni dengan Biaya DIPA Unsrat Tahun 2011 2)Progran Studi Fisika FMIPA Universitas San Ratulangi Manado, 95115 ABSTRAK Pemodelan sumber gempa di wilayah Sulawesi Utara telah dilakukan. Pemodelan sumber gempa menggunakan teori probabilitas total merupakan salah satu upaya mitigasi dalam mengetahui besarnya percepatan suatu gerakan tanah yang diakibatkan oleh suatu gempa bumi. Analisis perhitungan percepatan tanah maksimum di batuan dasar meliputi probabilitas terlampaui 10% dalam 50 tahun. Hasil analisis pemodelan sumber gempa yang telah dilakukan didapatkan bahwa nilai percepatan tanah pada beberapa kota besar di Sulawesi Utara cukup tinggi. Nilai percepatan tanah maksimum yang tertinggi adalah Kota Gorontalo dengan nilai percepatan sekitar 0,5g kemudian disusul oleh Kota Bitung sebesar 0,4g, dan Kota Manado sebesar 0,25g. Kata Kunci: pemodelan, sumber gempa, probabilitas, percepatan, batuan dasar. EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODELING OF NORTH SULAWESI REGION AS AN EFFORT OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER MITIGATION ABSTRACT Earthquake source modeling of North Sulawesi region was carried out. The earthquake source modeling using the theory of total probability is one of the mitigation efforts in knowing the magnitude of the acceleration of the ground motion caused by an earthquake. Analysis of the calculation of the maximum ground acceleration at bedrock includes the probability of exceedance 10% in 50 years. The results of the earthquake source modeling analysis has been done found that the ground acceleration values in some major cities in North Sulawesi is quite high. The maximum ground acceleration value of the highest is the of Gorontalo City with a value of about 0.5 g acceleration was followed by the Bitung City of 0.4 g, and the Manado City of 0.25 g. Keywords: modeling, earthquake source, probability, accelearation, bedrock
The North Arm of Sulawesi is one of the areas that has very active tectonic conditions. The earthquake source in this area comes from the activity of several tectonic plates such as the North Sulawesi Subduction, the Molluca Sea Collision, the Philippine Sea Plate, the Pacific Plate and several local faults such as the Palu Koro Fault, Gorontalo Fault, Bolmong Fault and Manado Fault. The purpose of this study was to determine the peak ground acceleration value using several empirical attenuation models such as the Fukushima-Tanaka, Donovan, McGuire, Campbell, and Crouse. The peak ground acceleration is the value of the greatest acceleration a place has ever occurred which describes the strength of the tremor or shock of an earthquake. Geographically, this research area is located at 1180E to 1270E and 0.50S to 40N. The data used are data from the ISC-EHB and USGS catalog during the observation interval 1964-2020. Data processing includes the uniformity of the magnitude scale into the Surface Magnitude (Ms) scale, determining the main shock, sorting earthquake data with a magnitude greater than M6.0 and a depth of less than 100 km, creating a grid measuring 0.05 x 0.05 degree. Next step, determine the peak ground acceleration using an empirical attenuation relationships. The analysis results show that the peak ground acceleration in the North Arm Sulawesi is as follows: McGuire Method 0.4295g, Fukushima-Tanaka 0.3595g method, Crouse method 0.314g, Donovan method 0.3149g, and Campbell method 0.2550g.
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