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The presence of a subsynoptic-scale vortex over the Mediterranean Sea in southeastern Italy on 26 September 2006 has been recently documented by the authors. The transit of the cyclone over land allowed an accurate diagnosis of the structure of the vortex, based on radar and surface station data, showing that the cyclone had features similar to those observed in tropical cyclones. To investigate the cyclone in greater depth, numerical simulations have been performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, set up with two domains, in a two-way-nested configuration. Model simulations are able to properly capture the timing and intensity of the small-scale cyclone. Moreover, the present simulated cyclone agrees with the observational analysis of this case, identifying in this small-scale depression the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. An analysis of the mechanisms responsible for the genesis, development, and maintenance of the cyclone has also been performed. Sensitivity experiments show that cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains is responsible for the generation of the cyclone. Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes become important during the subsequent phase of development in which the lee-vortex shallow depression evolved as it moved toward the south of Sicily. During this phase, the latent heating, associated with convective motions triggered by a cold front entering the central Mediterranean area, was important for the intensification and contraction of the horizontal scale of the vortex. The small-scale cyclone subsequently deepened as it moved over the Ionian Sea and then maintained its intensity during its later transit over the Adriatic Sea; in this later stage, latent heat release continued to play a major role in amplifying and maintaining the vortex, while the importance of the surface fluxes diminished.

Abstract.A forecasting system has been implemented for operational weather prediction over southern Italy in the framework of the RISKMED (INTERREG IIIB) project, which aims at weather-risk reduction in the central and eastern Mediterranean area. The system comprises two different regional forecasting chains, one based on BOLAM and MOLOCH models, the second based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.On 26 September 2006, a subsynoptic-scale vortex developed over the Mediterranean Sea and affected south-eastern Italy. The cyclone was documented by radar reflectivity maps, Meteosat Second Generation satellite images and surface stations data. The observational analysis showed that the cyclone possessed the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone.All the limited-area models employed in RISKMED were able to properly forecast the formation of the small-scale vortex, although with differences in intensity, trajectory and evolution. The predictability of the event has been evaluated employing a multi-model, multi-analysis approach. The simulation results show strong sensitivity to the specification of the initial and boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments were performed in order to analyse the mechanisms responsible for the development and the maintenance of the cyclone over the sea. The life cycle of the vortex turned out to be characterized by different phases: the orographic cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains; the initial phase of development, characterised by the Correspondence to: S. Davolio (s.davolio@isac.cnr.it) critical role played by the surface heat fluxes; the transition to a tropical-like cyclone mainly as a consequence of the latentheat release associated with strong convective activity over the Ionian Sea; finally, the maintenance of the vortex strength due to both the surface fluxes and the release of latent heat.

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Abstract.The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), conveyed by the multimodel ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error into the hydrological forecast.The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern Italy (Apennines). These episodes are associated with flood events of different intensity and are representative of different meteorological configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines.The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing) for warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil protection authorities in their decision.

Two heavy rain events over the Central Mediterranean basin, which are markedly different by genesis, dimensions, duration, and intensity, are analyzed. Given the relative low frequency of this type of severe storms in the area, a synoptic analysis describing their development is included. A multispectral analysis based on geostationary multifrequency satellite images is applied to identify cloud type, hydrometeor phase, and cloud vertical extension. Precipitation intensity is retrieved from (i) surface rain gauges, (ii) satellite data, and (iii) numerical model simulations. The satellite precipitation retrieval algorithm 183-Water vapor Strong Lines (183-WSL) is used to retrieve rain rates and cloud hydrometeor type, classify stratiform and convective rainfall, and identify liquid water clouds and snow cover from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) sensor data. Rainfall intensity is also simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model over two nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 16 km (comparable to that of the satellite sensor AMSU-B) and 4 km. The statistical analysis of the comparison between satellite retrievals and model simulations demonstrates the skills of both methods for the identification of the main characteristics of the cloud systems with a suggested overall bias of the model toward very low rain intensities. WRF (in the version used for the experiment) seems to classify as low rain intensity regions those areas where the 183-WSL retrieves no precipitation while sensing a mixture of freshly nucleated cloud droplets and a large amount of water vapor; in these areas, especially adjacent to the rain clouds, large amounts of cloud liquid water are detected. The satellite method performs reasonably well in reproducing the wide range of gauge-detected precipitation intensities. A comparison of the 183-WSL retrievals with gauge measurements demonstrates the skills of the algorithm in discriminating between convective and stratiform precipitation using the scattering and absorption of radiation by the hydrometeors.

Abstract. Numerical simulations of a tropical-like cyclone in southern Italy have been performed with two different modelling systems (BOLAM-MOLOCH and WRF) with the aim of discussing the role of the surface fluxes in the development of the vortex and evaluating their intensity during the mature stage of the cyclone. Although significant differences emerge in their intensity, both the modelling systems agree in showing that the surface fluxes are more important than the latent heat release associated with convection in the initial phase of the vortex lifecycle, while they are less relevant (although more intense) when the minimum assumes the characteristic of a tropical cyclone.