The objective of this study was to identify easily measurable predictors for falls, recurrent falls, and fractures using a population-based prospective cohort study of 1469 elderly, born before 1931, in three regions of the Netherlands. The baseline at-home interview was in 1992. In 1995, falls experienced in the preceding year and fractures over the preceding 38-month period were registered. In a period of 1 year, 32% of the participants fell at least once, and 15% fell two or more times. The rate of recurrent falls was similar in men and women up until the age of 75 years. The total number of fractures was 85, including 23 wrist fractures, 12 hip fractures, and 9 humerus fractures. The incidence density per 1000 person-years for any fracture was 25.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.9 -31.4) for women and 8.2 (95% CI, 4.5-12.0) for men, respectively. Multiple logistic regression identified urinary incontinence, impaired mobility, use of analgetics, and use of antiepileptic drugs as the predictors most strongly associated with recurrent falls. Female gender, living alone, past fractures, inactivity, body height, and use of analgetics proved to be the predictors most strongly associated with fractures. The probabilities of recurrent falls were 4.7% (95% CI, 2.9 -7.5%) to 59.2% (95% CI, 24.1-86.9%) with zero to four predictors, respectively. The probability of fractures ranged from 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0 -0.4%) without any of the identified predictors to 12.9% (95% CI, 4.4 -32.2%) with all six predictors present. Our study shows that the risk of recurrent falls and of fractures can be predicted using up to, respectively, four and six easily measurable predictors. This study emphasizes the importance of impaired mobility and inactivity as predictors for falls and fractures. (J Bone Miner

This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable predictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and social functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potential predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identified in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and functional limitations proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subsequent scores of the screening test ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides a fall-risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly.

The objectives of this study were to ascertain the prevalence of the number and severity of vertebral deformities in elderly people and determine the extent to which these are associated with several aspects of functioning. The study was conducted in a subsample of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) consisting of 527 participants (260 men and 267 women), aged 65 years or over. Lateral radiographs of the spine (T4-L5) were made of each participant and a semiquantitative method was used to assess the number and degree of vertebral deformities. The prevalence of having at least one vertebral deformity was 39% in both men and women. Six percent of the men and 5% of the women had at least three vertebral deformities. For severe deformities, the prevalence was 8% in men and 12% in women. The number of vertebral deformities was significantly associated with a height loss of more than 5 cm, difficulties in activities of daily living, poor performance, more than 3 days in bed and more than 3 days with limited activities because of health problems in the past month, and poor self-perceived health. For most of these outcome measures, associations were strongest when three or more deformities were present. The presence of a severe deformity was associated with a height loss of more than 5 cm, poor performance, more than 3 days with limited activities in the past month, and poor self-perceived health. None of the associations between number and severity of vertebral deformities and the level of functioning was modified by sex. We can conclude that vertebral deformities are very common in both older men and older women and that vertebral deformities, even if they are not clinically manifest, have a substantial impact on the level of functioning and well-being of older people.

In a prospective study of 348 apparently healthy women, aged 70 years and over (mean 80.3 years), we examined bone mineral density (BMD), biochemical markers of bone metabolism, and some easily measurable predictors in relation to hip and osteoporotic fractures. In addition, we constructed risk profiles for hip and osteoporotic fractures. At baseline, BMD at both hips, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, body height and body weight were measured. At the same time, serum and urine samples were obtained for biochemical analysis. Serum samples were analyzed for vitamin D metabolites, sex hormone binding globulin, serum intact parathyroid hormone, osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase, phosphate, albumin, calcium and creatinine. In 2 h fasting urine, hydroxyproline, type I collagen crosslinked N-telopeptide (NTx) and calcium excretion were measured. Furthermore, easily measurable predictors, such as previous fracture, body mass index (BMI) and mobility were assessed. During the follow-up period (mean duration 5.0 years), hip and any osteoporotic fracture (wrist, humerus or hip fracture) occurred in 16 and 33 participants, respectively. Data were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. BMD of the trochanter (per 1 SD decrease) and previous fracture were most strongly associated with hip fractures (adjusted relative risk (RR) = 3.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4-6.6; RR = 4.2, 95% CI: 1.5-11.6, respectively) and osteoporotic fractures (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-2.8; RR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.5-5.7, respectively). Previous fracture, BMI and mobility were identified as easily measurable predictors for hip fractures, whereas previous fracture, use of loop diuretics and age were predictors for osteoporotic fractures in the risk profile model. The risk of fractures can be predicted with three easily measurable predictors. This study confirms the importance of previous fracture as a predictor for hip fractures and other fractures. It also shows that the use of loop diuretics is a predictor for osteoporotic fractures.