We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

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This report is preliminary and has not been reviewed for conformity with U.S. Geological Survey editorial standards. Any use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement of the USGS.

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A seismic network of 12 self-contained, radio-telemetered seismograph systems was operated in the Kermit, Texas area for a period of 46 months. The main object of this study was to improve our understanding of the seismicity of this region where the first events were observed in 1964 and the first feit event occurred in 1966. Over 1300 events were located during this study, and the hypocenters displayed complex relationships with known geologie structures and oll field activity. Swarm activity was prominent, particularly in the southwest portion of the network. Most of the large events occurred near Kermit, Texas in the vicinity of the Keystone oil field and surprisingly few smaller events occurred in this area. The greatest concentrations of events (none feit), showed a strong spatial correlation with the War-Wink gas field.