Capital and cost of capital form a bridge between the insurance firm and the financial markets. The term capital is used in various ways. In current parlance, economic capital is frequently used to mean capital calculated using a risk-based measure which is independent of the regulatory requirements. In this paper we discuss the concept of target capital, where the firm takes account of three different approaches to risk appetite: regulatory capital plus a buffer; rating agency views; and the views of shareholders, where they make commitments to customers and wish to protect franchise value. We describe how, when blending these views, the firm needs to understand the trade-offs between too high and too low amounts of capital, with reference to the double taxation burden, insurance gearing (leverage of premiums to capital ratio), and the impact of the firm's credit rating on maximising franchise value. We then discuss the main drivers of the cost of capital, which we define as the required total return on the market value of the firm, as determined by reference to the opportunity cost of alternative investments of equivalent risk. We explain that, because the stock market value of the firm is not the same as the capital held inside the firm, the cost of capital derived from external studies cannot be directly applied to internal measures of target return such as return on equity (ROE); it is necessary to translate between the two measures. We separate the risk of the firm between the investment risk and the insurance risk. We describe the frictional costs of investing in an insurance firm, and explain the role of parameter and model risk arising from the uncertainty of the future claim costs of the firm. We describe the findings of two studies of the actual historical stock market returns of United States P&C companies. One of them suggests that applying the Fama-French model produces higher and more accurate cost of capital estimates than the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) method. This is explained by linking the price to book ratio to the costs of financial distress, which are particularly important for general insurance firms, given the influence of insurance strength ratings from the rating agencies. Finally, we attempt to estimate the risk load required in premiums to compensate investors for the elements of cost of capital which we have described, in a way that combines the financial economic approaches to insurance target returns with the traditional actuarial approaches to assessing the risks in the insurance business.
The draft paper sets out the authors' views of what good practice for the actuarial aspects of internal models will look like in 2012, the year Solvency II is expected to be implemented. Actuaries working on internal models can expect to have to follow such practices if their internal models are to be approved for use in calculating regulatory capital. The paper is therefore relevant for actuaries who plan to work on internal model implementation for Solvency II.Moreover, the risk quantification techniques discussed in the paper can also be used in the Own Risk Solvency Assessment (ORSA) process also required by Solvency II. The paper is therefore relevant to actuaries working in companies that are not planning to apply to use an internal model.The paper covers both life and non-life insurance and reinsurance, and reviews current practice as well as setting out possible future practice. This leads to identification of areas for research by the Profession to prepare for 2012 and an indication of the directions this work might take.The paper is effectively a work in progress, and readers should ask themselves what they should do in response to the ideas discussed.
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