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Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity, and in their vent locations. In this hazard assessment study we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological data sets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15 ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness. One of our key objectives was to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated. Results indicate that past vent locations are the most informative factors governing the probabilities of vent opening, followed by the locations of faults and then fractures. Our vent opening probability maps highlight the presence of a sizeable region in the central eastern part of the caldera where the likelihood of new vent opening per kilometer squared is about 6 times higher than the baseline value for the whole caldera. While these probability values have substantial uncertainties associated with them, our findings provide a rational basis for hazard mapping of the next eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera.

[1] Paroxysms at Stromboli are the most violent manifestations of the persistent activity and are related to the emission of small volumes (10 3 -10 5 m 3 ) of nearly aphyric HKbasaltic pumices. They offer the exceptional opportunity to detail the mixingcrystallization-degassing processes that occur in a steady state basaltic arc volcano. We present mineralogy, major, volatile, and trace element geochemistry of olivine-hosted melt inclusions of these pumices. In all the paroxysms, melt inclusions hosted in olivines Fo 88 -91 have recorded the parental melts rich in CaO (up to 14.5 wt %) but low in FeO (6-7 wt %). They demonstrate recurrent variations in the K 2 O content (1.6-1.3 wt %) and S/Cl ratios (1.2-0.8) of the melts that entered the deep system. Dynamic magma mixing between melts slightly distinct by their degree of evolution, rapid crystallization, and entrapment of gas-oversaturated melts during decompression are indicated by (1) the high density of irregular, clear melt inclusions, and embayments in homogeneous olivines (Fo 87±0.5 -Fo 83±0.5 ), (2) the variable ratio between melt and gas bubble, and (3) the variability of melt inclusion compositions in both major (CaO/Al 2 O 3 = 1-0.59) and volatile (3.4-1.8 wt % H 2 O, 1582-1017 ppm CO 2 ) elements. FeO-rich melt inclusions in patchy, reversely zoned olivines also demonstrate interactions between ascending melt blobs and inherited olivine crystals. We propose a model involving a vertically extended dike-like system, where magmas progress and differentiate. On the basis of olivine growth rate calculations the volatile-rich magma blobs may ascend within few hours to few tenths of hours. Finally, we propose that sulfur degassing is possibly initiated during the early stage of magma differentiation.

Stromboli, known worldwide as the ªLight-house of the Mediterraneanº, is commonly believed to have been in a state of persistent activity for the past 2000±2500 years. However, historical sources older than 1000 A.D. are not accurate enough to assess if the activity of the volcano was exactly the same as we see at present. In order to attempt to identify the onset of the present eruptive regime, and assess if it has been maintained with the same characteristics through time, stratigraphic and radiometric studies of the recent tephra deposits were undertaken. Up to 4-m-deep stratigraphic trenches, dug at a height of approximately 500 m on the NE flank of the volcano, exposed a conformable tephra pile containing charcoal fragments. One of the most interesting finds was the discovery of a 7-cm-thick weathered bed rich in organic matter (thin palaeosol) approximately 3 m below the surface. The sequence underneath the palaeosol consists of decimetre-thick lapilli fallout beds alternating with ash deposits bearing small charcoals with calibrated ages of between the fourth century B.C. and the first century A.D. The sequence above the palaeosol is charcoal free and consists of coarseash deposits with discrete, centimetre-thick lapilli fallout beds composed of crystal-poor golden pumice and subordinate crystal-rich black scoriae similar to scoria/ pumice pairs emitted during the more energetic explosions of the present-day activity. The data collected indicate that between the third and seventh centuries A.D., after a period of quiescence, the activity resumed with an eruptive style identical to the present one. We conclude that the ªLighthouse of the Mediterraneanº actually began its activity in a period much later than previously thought.

Red Pompeian paintings, very famous for their deep intensity, are currently suffering from darkening. The origins of this darkening degradation are not clearly identified yet and remain a major issue for curators. In the specific case of cinnabar (HgS)-based red pigment, a photoinduced conversion into black metacinnabar is usually suspected. This work is focused on the blackening of red cinnabar paintings coated on a sparry calcite mortar. Different samples exhibiting different levels of degradation were selected upon visual observations and analyzed by synchrotron-based microanalytical techniques. Atomic and molecular compositions of the different debased regions revealed two possible degradation mechanisms. On one hand, micro X-ray fluorescence elemental maps show peculiar distributions of chlorine and sulfur. On the other hand, X-ray absorption spectroscopy performed at both Cl and S K-edges confirms the presence of characteristic degradation products: (i) Hg-Cl compounds (e.g., corderoite, calomel, and terlinguaite), which may result from the reaction with exogenous NaCl, in gray areas; (ii) gypsum, produced by the calcite sulfation, in black coatings. Metacinnabar is never detected. Finally, a cross section was analyzed to map the in-depth alteration gradient. Reduced and oxidized sulfur distributions reveal that the sulfated black coating consists of a approximately 5-mum-thick layer covering intact cinnabar.

After decades of repose, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) erupted in June 2011 following a month of continuously increasing seismic activity. The eruption dispersed a large volume of rhyolitic tephra over a wide area and was characterized by complex dynamics. During the initial climactic phase of the eruption (24–30 h on 4–5 June), 11–14-km-high plumes dispersed most of the erupted tephra eastward towards Argentina, reaching as far as the Atlantic Ocean. This first eruptive phase was followed by activity of lower intensity, leading to the development of a complex stratigraphic sequence, mainly due to rapid shifts in wind direction and eruptive style. The resulting tephra deposits consist of 13 main layers grouped into four units. Each layer was characterized based on its dispersal direction, sedimentological features, and on the main characteristics of the juvenile fraction (texture, density, petrography, chemistry). The lowest part of the eruptive sequence (Unit I), corresponding to the tephra emitted between 4 and 5 June, is composed of alternating lapilli layers with a total estimated volume of ca. 0.75 km3; these layers record the highest intensity phase, during which a bent-over plume dispersed tephra towards the southeast-east, with negligible up-wind sedimentation. Products emitted during 5–6 June (Unit II) signaled an abrupt shift in wind direction towards the north, leading to the deposition of a coarse ash deposit in the northern sector (ca. 0.21 km3 in volume), followed by a resumption of easterly directed winds. A third phase (Unit III) began on 7 June and resulted in tephra deposits in the eastern sector and ballistic bombs around the vent area. A final phase (Unit IV) started after 15 June and was characterized by the emission of fine-grained white tephra from ash-charged plumes during low-level activity and the extrusion of a viscous lava flow. Timing and duration of the first eruptive phases were constrained based on comparison of the dispersal of the main tephra layers with satellite images, showing that most of the tephra was emitted during the first 72 h of the event. The analyzed juvenile material tightly clusters within the rhyolitic field, with negligible chemical variations through the eruptive sequence. Textural observations reveal that changes in eruption intensity (and consequently in magma ascent velocity within the conduit) and complex interactions between gas-rich and gas-depleted magma portions during ascent resulted in vesicular clasts with variable degrees of shear localization, and possibly in the large heterogeneity of the juvenile material