Five years of continuously recording GPS observations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia together with new continuous and survey‐mode GPS observations broadly distributed across the Arabian Peninsula provide the basis for substantially improved estimates of present‐day motion and internal deformation of the Arabian plate. We derive the following relative, geodetic Euler vectors (latitude (°N), longitude (°E), rate (°/Myr, counterclockwise)) for Arabia‐Nubia (31.7 ± 0.2, 24.6 ± 0.3, 0.37 ± 0.01), Arabia‐Somalia (22.0 ± 0.5, 26.2 ± 0.5, 0.40 ± 0.01), Arabia‐India (18.0 ± 3.8, 87.6 ± 3.3, 0.07 ± 0.01), Arabia‐Sinai (35.7 ± 0.8, 17.1 ± 5.0, 0.15 ± 0.04), and Arabia‐Eurasia (27.5 ± 0.1, 17.6 ± 0.3, 0.404 ± 0.004). We use these Euler vectors to estimate present‐day stability of the Arabian plate, the rate and direction of extension across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and slip rates along the southern Dead Sea fault south of the Lebanon restraining bend (4.5–4.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr, left lateral; 0.8–1.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr extension) and the Owens fracture zone (3.2–2.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr, right lateral, increasing from north to south; 1–2 mm/yr extension). On a broad scale, the Arabian plate has no resolvable internal deformation (weighted root mean square of residual motions for Arabia equals 0.6 mm/yr), although there is marginally significant evidence for N‐S shortening in the Palmyride Mountains, Syria at ≤ 1.5 mm/yr. We show that present‐day Arabia plate motion with respect to Eurasia is consistent within uncertainties (i.e., ±10%) with plate tectonic estimates since the early Miocene when Arabia separated from Nubia. We estimate the time of Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifting from present‐day Arabia motion, plate tectonic evidence for a 70% increase in Arabia‐Nubia relative motion at 13 Ma, and the width of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and find that rifting initiated roughly simultaneously (±2.2 Myr) along the strike of the Red Sea from the Gulf of Suez to the Afar Triple Junction, as well as along the West Gulf of Aden at 24 ± 2.2 Ma. Based on the present kinematics, we hypothesize that the negative buoyancy of the subducted ocean lithosphere beneath the Makran and the Zagros fold‐thrust belt is the principle driver of Arabia‐Eurasia convergence and that resisting forces associated with Arabia‐Eurasia continental collision have had little impact on plate motion.
S U M M A R YNew Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements in NW Syria provide the first direct observations of near-field deformation associated with the northern Dead Sea fault system (DSFS) and demonstrate that the kinematics of the northern section of this transform plate boundary between the Arabian and Sinai plates deviate significantly from plate model predictions. Velocity estimates based on GPS survey campaigns in 2000, 2007 and 2008, demonstrate left-lateral shear along the northern DSFS with 1σ uncertainties less than 0.7 mm yr −1 . These velocities are consistent with an elastic dislocation model with a slip rate of 1.8-3.3 mm yr −1 and a locking depth of 5-16 km. This geodetically determined slip rate is about half of that reported farther south along the central section (Lebanese restraining bend) and the southern section (Jordan Valley and Wadi Araba) of the transform and consequently requires some deformation to occur away from the transform along other geological structures. The factor of two difference in slip rates along the transform is also consistent with differing estimates of total fault slip that have occurred since the mid Miocene: 20-25 km along the northern DSFS (in NW Syria) versus about 45 km along the southern DSFS segment. Some of the strain deficit may be accommodated by north-south shortening within the southwestern segment of the Palmyride fold belt of central Syria. Additionally, a distinct change in velocity occurs within the Sinai plate itself. These new GPS measurements, when viewed alongside the palaeoseismic record and the modest level of present-day seismicity, suggest that the reported estimates of recurrence time of large earthquakes (M > 7) along the northern section of the DSFS may be underestimated owing to temporal clustering of such large historical earthquakes. Hence, a revised estimate of the earthquake hazard may be needed for NW Syria.
On 4 August 2020 Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, was rocked by a sequence of colocated fires and chemical explosions that left hundreds of people dead, thousands injured and homeless, demolished the city’s seaport, and heavily damaged the surrounding neighborhoods and businesses. The event was well recorded by many regional seismic stations in and around the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Using a network of 58 stations, 105 regional seismic phases, and a Bayesian methodology places the event at 1.8 km south of the ground-truth location, the seaport warehouse. Achieving this accuracy is significant, considering very limited local seismic data were available to use in this study. The location bias is attributed, in large part, to a small but statistically significant difference in the Moho velocity for sea paths compared with continental paths. The depth to the Moho is generally consistent with the iasp91 model. Concurrent to the port explosion is a series of unrelated small explosions, 11 s apart, attributed to a seismic survey that was being carried out at the time in the eastern Mediterranean Sea using air guns.
faults) and a generalized off-shore thrust fault to accommodate convergence in the restraining bend, and 2) continuum (velocity gradient) models that explore infinitesimal strain and rotation rates. The models suggest a displacement rate of 4.5-5.5 mm/yr along the Yammouneh fault and a counter clock wise rotation of 0.5 o -1.75 o /MA within the bend. This study provides an essential tool for assessing the seismic hazard in the vicinity of the Lebanese restraining bend.
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