Organic agriculture, based on natural production technologies, obtains a great potential for reversing humanity to a healthy diet and living in harmony with nature by improving the state of the ecosystem. The share of organic food products in the market of the developed countries is already quite high; and various institutional systems of the industry have been introduced and are being improved in the leading countries of the world. Domestic agribusiness is currently lagging behind in these matters, but the situation should be significantly changed by the adopted law and state standard regulating the requirements for the organic sector. In this regard, an objective need arose to substantiate the capabilities and the resource potential of the Saratov region in this sphere. Within the framework of the presented research, an interdisciplinary fundamental platform to develop the theory of the organic food products market was formed. As a result, the elements of the scientific methodology (theories, principles, factors, methods) of its functioning were identified, which made it possible to substantiate the potential capacity of the regional consumer market for organic food. The calculation was made taking into account the rational norms of food consumption that meet modern requirements for a healthy diet, the heterogeneity of consumer preferences, the price gap for the main conventional and organic products in retail and the dispersion of prices for the latter, the implementation of state policy to protect and improve the health of certain population groups. This study is intended for the state management bodies of the agro-industrial sector, the leadership of agricultural, processing and marketing enterprises, the structures of wholesale and retail food products trade and branch research institutions.
Profit is the key objective of the business enterprise, and its forecast plays a major role both in the initial business planning stage and in its ongoing work, since it allows the manager to make timely management decisions and adjust the vector of his development. The authors proposed an analytical model for forecasting the production and financial results of the functioning of economic entities of the Saratov region as one of the integral elements of digital business modeling of the activities of the agricultural organization of the region. The article considers the concepts of a modern business model of a commercial enterprise, presents a digital business model of an agricultural organization from the point of view of managing its main constituent elements (processes), shows key approaches to its construction, reveals the structure of its production unit. The proposed predictive and analytical component of the digital business model of the agricultural organization allows to investigate the production and financial results of activities of economic entities of the Saratov region in dynamics over 10 years by applying one of the methods of graphical analysis of data (superimposition of the moving average polynomial line of the second degree), as well as to find the corresponding equation for detecting the state of indicators in the near term. In order to improve the reliability of the predictive and analytical part of the digital business model, a correlation-regression analysis method was used, as a result of which coefficients were identified, reflecting the degree of interaction between individual elements of costs for agricultural production, on the one hand, and factors affecting profits, on the other. The main element of the novelty of this work is the combination of methods of graphical and correlation-regression analysis of data, as a result of which the authors proposed a formula for determining a number of forecast values of factors affecting the profits of agricultural producers, taking into account the coefficients of their relationship with individual cost elements.
The growth in demand for organic products is due to a conscious personal need and the popularization of a healthy lifestyle. Despite the relevance, demand, a large number of theoretical and applied research, foreign and domestic publications, the resource potential and prospects of the Russian Federation in this area of agribusiness have not yet been fully identified, and the development of scientific foundations for the development of organic production in the agro-industrial complex is required. The reason for the expected growth in the interest of both manufacturers and consumers in the organic segment of the food market is the entry into force of Federal Law No. 280-FZ «On organic products and on amendments to certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation» and the Interstate GOST standard on January 1, 2020 33980-2016 «Products of organic production. Rules for production, processing, labeling and sale». The general concept “scientific foundations for the development of organic production” formed by the authors is consistent with the world base of accumulated knowledge and is a systematized composition of theoretical provisions, principles, factors, methods and approaches for the development of crop and livestock production, processing and the market. A comprehensive theoretical consideration of the issue became the basis for building a comprehensive mechanism for its practical implementation at the regional level. The mechanism includes interconnected blocks of controlled and control systems, specific processes and specific development methods aimed at them, as well as indicators of development results for all interested participants: manufacturers, processing organizations, infrastructure and social facilities. Modern methods and techniques, developed in detail and applied in research, aimed at studying the resource potential and conditions of the regional market, grouped in four directions in the form of methodological aspects, made it possible to obtain the results proposed for discussion.
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