中国城镇化&amp;lt;bold&amp;gt;2050: &amp;lt;/bold&amp;gt;&amp;lt;bold&amp;gt;SD&amp;lt;/bold&amp;gt;模型与过程模拟

Large-scale population migration accompanied by rapid urbanization is expected to cause the spatial relocation of air pollution because of heterogeneous energy use and consumption preferences of rural versus urban areas in China. In this study, we adopted an integrated approach by combining a population migration model and environmentally extended input−output analysis to quantify impacts of rural-to-urban (RU) and urbanto-urban (UU) migrations on emissions of NO x , SO 2 , and primary PM 2.5 in China. Results indicate that population migration increases NO x (1.42 Mt), SO 2 (1.30 Mt), and primary PM 2.5 (0.05 Mt) emissions, accounting respectively for 5.4, 4.8, and 0.4% of China's total in 2012. RU migration, involving 54% of the migrating population, significantly increases NO x and SO 2 emissions because of high urban indirect per-capita emissions from consumption and investment. RU migration influences negligibly primary PM 2.5 emissions reflecting the small rural−urban difference in per-capita emissions. Interestingly, UU migration, mostly from inland to coastal provinces, leads to a slight emission decrease for the three pollutants, attributable to the greener development in coastal cities. A significant emission growth can be traced back to heavy and utility industries, suggesting that future emission control of these sectors should reduce the exposure to air pollution of the growing urban population.

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Mechanism analysis and empirical research on urbanization and carbon emissions in China: Based on the perspective of economic development, population transfer, and urban expansion

CHEN,

LI,

GENG

et al. 2024

JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES

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中国城镇化<bold>2050: </bold><bold>SD</bold>模型与过程模拟

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Rural financial development and achieving an agricultural carbon emissions peak: an empirical analysis of Henan Province, China

Rural financial development and achieving an agricultural carbon emissions peak: an empirical analysis of Henan Province, China

Air Pollutant Emissions Induced by Population Migration in China

Mechanism analysis and empirical research on urbanization and carbon emissions in China: Based on the perspective of economic development, population transfer, and urban expansion

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