Лагова Модель Авторегресії Впливу Сонячної Активності На Захворюваність На Туберкульоз

Abstract

Tuberculosis incidence today is an urgent health care problem and one of the leading causes of mortality in Ukraine and the world, therefore research into the factors that cause morbidity is important for the prevention of the spread of the disease.In the 20th century, O. L. Chyzhevsky, who is the founder of heliobiology and heliosociology, proved with numerous studies the influence of solar activity on epidemic diseases, in particular, flu, plague, cholera, typhus, etc. We continue his research by studying the effect of solar activity on epidemic and non-epidemic diseases, accidents, mortality, etc.A close connection between the average annual fluctuations of solar activity and the dynamics of tuberculosis incidence was revealed. Moreover, the effect is exerted by the magnetic Wolff numbers, that is, the polarity of the solar magnetic fluxes is important. This influence causes the 22-year duration of the tuberculosis cycle. A model of linear dependence was built, which takes into account the 5-year lag in the dynamics of morbidity relative to solar activity. This model contains an autoregressive variable which takes into account the dependence of the incidence on its value in the previous year. Based on this model, an incidence forecast was made, according to which the incidence is expected to increase in the next four years. The experience of forecasting the influence of solar activity on the state of health, psyche and behavior of people, which is published weekly in the newspaper «Narodne slovo» of the Kropyvnytskyi, is demonstrated.